Week 12 Fantasy: Who Should you Start and Sit?

Authors: Andrew Bennett, Heath Mckeown

Start: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be a strong week 12 fantasy start, especially given that they play the Cardinals who rank 21st in total defence, allowing 346 yards per game. The Cardinals passing defence is also ranked 21st, giving up approximately 218 yards per game. With this mediocre defence, it should be a good opportunity for JSN as he has constantly been involved in the Seahawks offense. Smith-Njigba is ranked 14th among wide receivers in PPR formats for week 12, showing his value as a fantasy option. JSN is averaging 67.8 receiving yards per game and is coming off a big week 11 performance, where he got 10 receptions and 110 yards. With the team leading 86 targets on the season, it is proven that Geno likes to find him. Although JSN only has 3 touchdowns on the season, he can rack up many receiving yards to balance his performance out, providing a good starter for fantasy owners. The Seahawks rank 2nd in passing offence, averaging 261 passing yards per game, which shows a throwing-heavy offense. Due to this, JSN is more likely to have opportunities to contribute, especially in a divisional matchup where the teams are fighting for playoff spots. With a struggling Cardinals defence against the pass, JSN will have opportunities to capitalize, making him a good week 12 fantasy start.

Sit: Rico Dowdle

Rico Dowdle should be on your bench in week 12 as the Cowboys are set to face the Commanders in a divisional matchup. While Washington’s defence has not been great this season, ranking in the middle of the pack in most categories, the Cowboys offense is not performing well right now making it hard to trust any of their players. With Cooper Rush starting at quarterback, Dallas has struggled to have good drives or establish a solid ground game, limiting Dowdle’s potential. Rico’s production has been lackluster, averaging 44.6 rush yards per game with 0 rushing touchdowns on the season. He also averages around 10 carries per game, which is not enough volume to produce meaningful fantasy points. Additionally, Dowdle is ranked 25th in fantasy ranking for running backs in PPR formats for week 12, again demonstrating his low ceiling compared to other running backs. His role in the passing game has given him a bit of a boost, but still not much because he averages approximately 19 receiving yards per game with 3 receiving touchdowns on the season through nine games. He is coming off two disappointing performances where in his last game against the Texans he had 10 carries for 28 rush yards and caught 2 of 5 targets for 6 yards, showing no sign of turning things around. Because of the Cowboy’s recent struggles, it is simply unlikely that Dowdle will have the opportunity to put up good fantasy points. Although the Commander's defence may not be elite, they should be able to stop this insufficient offense. Having Dowdle as a starter for week 12 is too risky with this disappointing Cowboys offense.

Start: Tyrone Tracy Jr

Tyrone Tracy Jr. should be a strong start this week as he comes off a bye week and is well-rested. Over his last six games, Tracy has averaged an impressive 14.87 points per game. He’ll face a Tampa Bay defence that ranks as the 5th worst against the run in the league, providing an excellent opportunity for him to continue his efficiency. Rookies often gain trust and show noticeable growth as the season progresses, and with the Giants releasing Daniel Jones and starting an inexperienced Tommy DeVito, the team is likely to lean heavily on the running game. Despite his consistent production, Tracy has only been started in 56% of Yahoo Fantasy leagues, making him a sneaky good option for Week 11.

Sit: Xavier Legette

Xavier Legette should stay on your bench for week 12 as the Panthers are set to face the Kansas City Chiefs, one of the league’s best defences. The Chiefs rank 5th in total defencFe, allowing 297.5 total yards per game, and are ranked 8th in scoring defence, allowing approximately 19 points per game. The strong Chiefs defence creates a tough matchup for Xavier Legette, especially with the Panthers offensive struggles. Carolina is ranked 31st in the league in passing offense, averaging 170.7 pass yards per game. Legette’s production this season has not been great. In 10 games played, he is averaging 28.4 receiving yards and just 2.9 receptions per game, providing minimal chances to make a fantasy impact. Another concern for Legette’s fantasy performance is Bryce Young. Bryce Young is averaging 117.14 yards through 7 games and was benched earlier in the season, showing the instability of Carolina’s offense. In PPR formats, Legette is expected to put up 8.66 points and is ranked as the WR50.

Against a solid defence like Kansas City’s, Legette is better to stay on the bench for week 12.\

Start: Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert has been a reliable option at tight end this season, averaging 12.62 points per game despite missing four games due to a hamstring injury. Since returning, he has looked solid, scoring over 10 points in both games. Impressively, he has produced consistent fantasy numbers with only one touchdown this season, showcasing his ability to rack up points through volume and yardage. Goedert's 20.6% on-field target share is pacing for the best mark of his career, indicating that he is a key part of the Eagles' offense. This week Goedert faces the Rams, who rank 7th worst in the league at defending tight ends, making this a highly favorable matchup. Goedert has scored at least 10 points in each of his last four games, proving his consistency and reliability. Despite these strong numbers, he is only started in 54% of Yahoo Fantasy leagues, leaving a major opportunity for savvy managers to take advantage. With his combination of volume, efficiency, and a great matchup, Goedert is a must-start for Week 11.

Sit: D’Andre Swift

D'Andre Swift faces a challenging matchup this week against the Minnesota Vikings, who boast the second-best run defence in the NFL allowing just 74.4 rushing yards per game. Swift has been dealing with a groin injury, which limited his participation in practice earlier this week. In the Bears' recent game, his carry share dipped below 60% to 58.3%, and excluding one significant run, he averaged just 2.46 yards per carry. With the Bears recently firing their offensive coordinator and new OC Shane Waldron calling plays, the backfield distribution was more evenly split. Given these factors, including the likelihood of the Bears relying more on the passing game if they fall behind, Swift may have limited opportunities to produce. Despite being started in 67% of Yahoo Fantasy leagues, it would be beneficial to sit Swift this week.

MLB 2024 Award Predictions

Authors: Liam Robertson, Rohan Sankaran

AL MVP: Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge is likely to reel in his second AL MVP award in 3 years as the center fielder had another dominant year at the plate smashing 58 home runs with 144 runs batted in (MLB leader in both). Finishing a lowly third place in batting average prevented him from winning the triple crown which would have been the first since Miguel Cabrera in 2012. Additionally, he led the MLB in most advanced stats with 10.8 bWAR, 218 wRC+, and .476 wOBA. Despite hitting less home runs, many would argue that Judge was statistically better than his 2022 MVP campaign with a higher bWAR, wRC+, and OPS.

Honourable Mentions: Bobby Witt Jr., Juan Soto

Bobby Witt Jr. should be commended on a season that would likely win MVP in many other years, posting a .332 average, 211 hits, and 9.4 bWAR while winning the Gold Glove at shortstop. Juan Soto slugged a career-high 41 home runs winning a Silver Slugger and being a Gold Glove finalist for right field in his first year with the Yankees. While both had amazing years, they should come up short compared to Aaron Judge’s extraordinary season.

NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani

Finishing the regular season with the second highest batting average in the NL and posting an NL-leading OPS and slugging percentage, all while raking in 54 home runs and 130 RBIs (NL leader in both stats), Ohtani is the consensus favourite to bring home the NL MVP. Moreover, Ohtani became the first player in MLB history to post a 50/50 season, and saw career highs in every major stat. On an advanced analytics front, Ohtani was among league leaders in wOBA, and wRC+ indicating immense offensive efficiency. Ohtani has brought home the 2024 Edgar Martinez DH of the year award, and won the NL Hank Aaron award, and we greatly expect him to be securing his 3rd career MVP award.

Honourable mentions: Fransisco Lindor, Ketel Marte

Despite not winning the MVP, Lindor and Marte were nothing short of exceptional this season. Lindor posted an impressive .273 AVG, 33 HR, 91 RBIs, and an impressive 7.0 WAR (3rd in NL). Ketel Marte, while posting strong numbers (.292 AVG, .932 OPS, 6.8 WAR, 36 HR, 95 RBI), only played 132 games this year, which is why we have him ranked 3rd in the NL MVP race.

AL Cy Young: Tarik Skubal

 The young southpaw Tarik Skubal was unknown to many coming into the 2024 MLB season. He far surpassed all expectations posting a 2.39 ERA, 18 Wins, and 228 strikeouts, all of which were leading figures in the AL. Skubal continued his dominance into the postseason where he threw 19 innings with a 2.37 ERA helping propel the underdog Tigers to the ALDS. He will take home the pitching triple crown and no pitcher since the turn of the century has lost the Cy Young after winning the triple crown. He did this with a workhorse level of innings, finishing 5th with 192 IP. Looking at advanced stats, Skubal continued to dominate, finishing with a 2.49 FIP (1st in AL) 6.51 K/BB (2nd in AL), and 30.03 Strikeout Rate (1st in AL).

Honourable Mention: Emmanuel Clase

Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase put together an incredible season that was one of the best reliever seasons in the last decade. Finishing with an MLB-leading 46 saves, 0.65 ERA, and only allowing 5 runs all season, Clase locked down an excellent Guardians bullpen helping lead them to an AL Central division title. Skubal will take home the award as Clase does not have the workload or the strikeouts to compete, however, this was an incredible showing from him

NL Cy Young: Chris Sale

After being traded for Vaughn Grissom in the off-season, talks of Chris Sale even being a reliable MLB starter were brought into question. Sale proceeded to put up an MLB-leading 2.38 ERA through 177.2 IP, 225 Ks (2nd in MLB), 1.01 WHIP (6th in MLB), and winning a league-leading 18 games (.857 W-L%). There is no doubt that Chris Sale won’t take home the NL Cy Young award. With Sale winning the triple crown, Comeback Player of the Year award, being named to his 8th career All-Star team, and landing a spot on the 2024 All-MLB first team, Sale’s incoming Cy Young award is certain. On the advanced stats front, Sale posted a 6.4 fWAR and 2.09 FIP which both led the league as well as a 32.1% strike-out rate.

 Honourable Mentions: Zack Wheeler, Paul Skenes

Zack Wheeler was right behind Sale in ERA, strikeouts, had a lower WHIP (0.92), all in more innings pitched (200). Despite those figures, Sale posted superior stats in nearly all major categories and advanced stats trumped Wheeler's 22.8 more innings pitched, and 0.09 WHIP difference. Despite just making his MLB debut on May 11th, Paul Skenes has solidified himself as a top pitcher in the league. Posting a dominant 1.96 ERA 4.3 fWAR, 0.947 WHIP, and 170 Ks in 130 IP, Skenes proved himself as one of the most efficient and effective MLB starting pitchers. His 130IP will ultimately be the main reason why he finishes 3rd behind Wheeler, and Sale but he has sky-high potential in the future.

AL Manager of the Year: Matt Quatraro

 In a razor-tight AL manager of the year race between Quatraro (-135) and Vogt (-105), we have Quatraro edging out the victory over Vogt on the pretense of Quatraro accomplishing equal excellence to Vogt with a lot less. Despite the Guardians winning 6 more regular season games and winning the AL central over the Royals, no one expected Kansa City to be as dominant as they were. Going into the season the Royals had many overlooked signings. Players like Seth Lugo, Hunter Renfroe, Will Smith, and Michael Wacha, with the 2023 roster that did not have many turning heads had low expectations. Accomplishing an 86-76 record through consistently making excellent bullpen decisions (8th in team bullpen ERA), and executing phenomenal situational navigation, Quatraro reshaped people’s perceptions of the team.

Honourable Mention: Steven Vogt

 On the other hand, Stephen Vogt was nothing short of excellent this year, leading Cleveland to win the AL central, be 3rd in the bullpen ERA, and employ innovative and excellent lineups, situational navigation, and game management. The main difference between Vogt and Quatraro comes down to the rosters, the Cleveland Guardians were the favorite to win the AL Central, and already had cornerstone players in Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan, and Emmanuel Clase to add complementary pieces around. Nonetheless, outbreaks from David Fry, Brayan Rocchio, Andres Gimenez, and leaps from Steven Kwan and Tanner Bibee were very impressive. These breakouts likely occurred due to the effectiveness of Stephen Vogt’s management

NL Manager of the Year: Pat Murphy

 Back in March, the Brewers looked to be ending their run of consistent playoff teams. The departure of many key figures including, longtime manager Craig Counsell, President of Baseball Operations David Stearns, and the trade of former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes had us worried. Against the odds, first-time manager Pat Murphy led the Brewers to a comfortable NL Central Division title. He navigated injuries to significant players including former MVP winner Christian Yelich and reigning Reliever of the Year Devin Williams, and able to deploy the bullpen to perfection, finishing 1st in the NL in bullpen ERA.

Honourable Mention: Carlos Mendoza, Mike Schildt

Carlos Mendoza and Mike Schildt are very similar in their award cases as both were first-year managers on teams that overperformed. After a disappointing 2023, the Mets were expected to enter a retooling phase. They exceeded expectations in part due to the excellent managing of Mendoza. After trading Juan Soto and not making the playoffs in 2023, the Padres had minimal expectations. The strong management of Mike Schildt led them to win 93 games and challenge the Dodgers for the division. While all mentioned managers were impressive, Murphy contributed the most to his team’s winning in our opinion which is why we have him receiving the award.

Week 11 NFL Fantasy: Who Should you Start and Sit?

Authors: Heath Mckweon, Andrew Bennett

Graphic: Liban Rizvi

Start: Puka Nacua

Despite being out on the IR earlier this season, Puka should be ready to have a big game against the New England Patriots. His chemistry with Stafford has been evident, with Puka getting a good amount of targets along with Kupp. These targets have allowed for Puka to maintain a steady fantasy production. New England is allowing around 209 pass yards per game, but with the duo of Puka and Kupp, it should be hard on the Patriots defense to stop them. Puka has played in four games this season and has had 2 big games and 2 mediocre games, but with this struggling Patriots team, Puka should be in for another big game.

Source: CNN

Sit: Brian Thomas Jr

Brian Thomas Jr, the rookie out of LSU, should be on your bench for week 11 as the Jaguars go up against the Lions. The Lions have been decent defensively this season but with Mac Jones as the Jaguars starter for week 11, Brian Thomas Jr is in trouble. Mac Jones does not have much arm strength and was only able to put up 7 points for the Jaguars last week against the Vikings. Thomas Jr is questionable as of now for week 11, but if he plays, Thomas Jr should remain on your bench no matter what just because of Mac Jones as his quarterback. Last week Jones kept throwing short as his second longest throw was 18 yards. This is not a good scene for the Jaguars and Thomas Jr.

Start: Bo Nix

Bo Nix is in his rookie season at quarterback for the Denver Broncos. Surprisingly to some, Nix has been having a solid season. The rookie is averaging 197 pass yards per game with 10 passing touchdowns in ten games. Nix can rush as well as he is averaging 29 rush yards per game with 4 rushing touchdowns. Bo handled the Kansas City defense pretty well last week where he threw for 215 yards, 2 touchdowns and had a 73% completion percentage. Although Nix and the Broncos did not win the game, he showed a lot of promise. Nix has averaged 20.3 fantasy points per game in his last six games, showing signs that he is able to stay consistent and have another good game. Atlanta is averaging 223 pass yards per game, allowing for Nix to throw the ball this week, but also rush when needed as the Falcons ranked 24th in rush

Sit: Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth is not your best option for the tight end position in week 11 against the Baltimore Ravens. Freiermuth has been inconsistent this season, with a lack of involvement with the Steelers offense. He is averaging around 30 yards per game, which is not what someone needs as their TE position in fantasy. Even with Wilson joining the team and playing well, Freiermuth will not see as many targets because of George Pickens and Darnell Washington who is the other tight end on the Steelers. In this divisional matchup, there does not seem like there will be much success for Freiermuth against the Ravens defense.

Start: Calvin Ridley

Calvin Ridley has been a top-performing receiver over the last three weeks, averaging 20.1 points per game in PPR formats. This impressive production coincides with the trade of DeAndre Hopkins three games ago, which has opened up more opportunities for Ridley to shine. Facing a Minnesota secondary ranked third worst in the league against opposing receivers, Ridley is primed for another big game. While his first six games of the season were underwhelming at just 7.33 points per game, this recent surge highlights his potential as a must-start option this week. Currently starting in only 54% of Yahoo Fantasy leagues, Ridley deserves far more attention in lineups.

Sit: Najee Harris

Najee Harris has been on a hot streak over the past four weeks, averaging 15.95 points per game. However, his momentum is likely to stall this week against a formidable Baltimore defense. The Ravens boast the 8th best run defense in the league, presenting the toughest challenge Harris has faced this season. His recent success has heavily relied on touchdowns, with three in his last four games. Prior to this stretch, he had zero touchdowns on the season, highlighting the unpredictability of finding the end zone. Given the strength of Baltimore's defense and Harris's reliance on scoring, it's a risky bet to start him this week. Currently started in 57% of Yahoo Fantasy leagues, we recommend sitting Harris for week 11

Week 10 NFL Fantasy: Who Should you Start and Sit?

Authors: Heath McKweon & David Gold

Start: D'Andre Swift

The Patriots’ defense has been vulnerable this season against the run, ranking them 26th in yards allowed per game. New England’s front seven can be solid, but has had difficulty stopping better running backs, especially those who can run and receive like Swift. In particular, the Patriots have struggled with receiving running backs, allowing them to gain a lot of yards. Swift’s ability to catch gives him a higher floor in PPR leagues and will increase his chance of scoring many fantasy points, even if his rushing is lackluster this game. Swift is currently averaging around 63 rushing yards per game and 28 receiving yards per game making him very difficult to control. Over the past few weeks specifically, Swift has been playing well and very productively which allows for increased opportunity this game on top of the favourable opponent.

Sit: Michael Pittman Jr

Michael Pittman Jr. is going to be a risky start for week 10 seeing that he has not had a very good season thus far. Pittman Jr. has just two touchdowns in 9 games and is not putting up large numbers in the receiving yards column either. The Colts are set to face the Bills this week who have a solid defense, there is no advantage there for Pittman Jr. The Bills strong pass defense has just been allowing around 210 passing yards per game and are ranked 8th for points allowed per game where they average 19.2 points allowed. The Colts have struggled a bit offensively, switching QB’s this season and now Josh Downs poses threat to Pittman Jr. as Downs has been getting increased receptions recently. Given these factors it is best that Pittman Jr stays on your bench this week.

Start: Malik Nabers

Malik Nabers could be a very good start in week 10 as he and the Giants are set to face the Carolina Panthers. Nabers has been relatively consistent this season and he led the team in receptions and receiving yards last game against the Commanders. Although that was not Nabers' best game, he should be in for a great week as he faces the 25th ranked pass defense. Nabers is averaging approximately 80 yards per game this season and is now going up against the defensively struggling Panthers who are allowing 232.6 pass yards per game. Although the Giants offense has not been as explosive lately, this could be a big game for Nabers and the Giants offense to bounce back as they play a struggling team.

Sit: Javonte Williams

The Chiefs’ defense has been consistently solid against the run so far this season. The Chiefs rank 3rd for run defense proving that Williams will likely continue to struggle this week. Their run defense is excellent at containing physical backs like Williams, making this an even tougher match up. Kansas City can put up points on offense so this could mean that Denver might throw the ball more, limiting touches for Williams additionally. Williams is the lead back in Denver, but he still shares the backfield with Aurdic Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin which inhibits his role on offence. If Williams continues to not be efficient in the game, the other running backs will have the opportunity to step up and take over the RB1 position. Williams has the talent to have a good game, but he has not proven himself this year and the Chiefs run defense will be too good for Williams to have a big break out.

Start: Kirk Cousins

Kirk Cousins will almost certainly be a great week 10 fantasy starter as he goes up against the New Orleans Saints, who have lost their last seven games in a row. Kirk Cousins is averaging 258 passing yards per game which make this week an amazing matchup as the Saints rank 27th in pass defense, allowing 240 pass yards a game. Kirk and the Falcons are coming off a good week against the Cowboys as Cousins threw for three touchdowns. With the way Drake London and Darnell Mooney are playing lately, Cousins should be in for an even bigger performance than their game against the Saints earlier this year. The Saints have kept struggling since the last time they played the Falcons, and the Saints secondary is giving up big plays to wide receivers. Cousins will likely be able to put up some solid fantasy points with the opportunities that will surely arise in this match up.

Sit: Xavier Worthy

With the Chiefs adding DeAndre Hopkins to their offense along side Travis Kelce, they now have two elite pass-catchers who will take most of the targets. Kelce has always been a primary target for Mahomes, especially in the red zone and on third downs. Now, with D-Hop joining the Chiefs, one would anticipate he will be a frequent target, especially based on his abilities. This is not good for Worthy as he is likely to see much less involvement in the offense. Mahomes is known to trust his weapons and Worthy has not proven that he can be reliable for Mahomes yet this season. Worthy is averaging just around 30 yards per game, so he has not had that great of a season by any measure. Worthy is simply not a very trustworthy start anymore because his competition is so stiff on the team. Worthy has shown in his last game against the Ravens where he only received 2 touches compared to 8 in the game prior that this acquisition and roster will make him a fantasy bench.

Week 7 Game of the Week: Oregon vs. Ohio State – A BIG 10 Defining Battle

Graphic: Liban Rizvi

Author: Max Mcclean

After a week of stunning upsets, week 7 of the 2024-2025 college football season brings the most important matchup for the College Football Playoff race. Week 7 is headlined by a critical BIG10 showdown that sees the No.3 Oregon Ducks playing host to the No.2 Ohio State Buckeyes in what could be the year's most important game.

Both teams enter this game with their eyes firmly set on gaining separation atop the BIG10 conference. This is an even more coveted title this year as it carries a first-round bye in the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. With both teams ranked in the top three, this clash has all the makings of a playoff preview, and the winner will have a significant edge in solidifying their postseason path.

Oregon 

For Oregon, their inaugural season in the BIG10 has already been filled with excitement. In week 2, they topped the Ashton Jeanty led No.17 Boise State in a 37-34 victory at home. Transitioning from the PAC-12, where the Ducks dominated in recent years, it is clear they have established themselves in one of college football's toughest conferences. With the new expanded 12-team playoff format, a BIG10 title would not only bring a trophy but a critical first-round bye.  

For Oregon to defeat Ohio State, Dillon Gabriel will need to have a Heisman-caliber performance. Gabriel has been everything he was hyped up to be when he transferred from Oklahoma, leading all of college football with a 77.8% completion percentage. His precision in the passing game is the reason the Duck's offence is one of the most efficient in the nation, averaging 35 PPG. 

Gabriel has effectively  been able to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers all season. Running back Jordan James is averaging 110.4 yards per game on the ground bringing a new component to the Oregon offense they are not used to seeing in Eugene. Receiver Tez Johnson has also been shining this year, racking up  395 yards and 43 receptions through the first five games of the season. Johnson brings excellent speed bursts and elite route running to the table, easily creating separation from defenders. 

The Ohio State secondary is likely the best Oregon will play all season. If Gabriel can maintain his high level of play, avoid turnovers, and continue to put the ball in the hands of his playmakers, Oregon will have a real shot at knocking off the Buckeyes and securing a critical win in their push for a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.

Ohio State

Since Ryan Day was named head coach five years ago, Ohio State has been sixth in record against ranked opponents across college football. Ohio State has compiled an impressive 16-8 record, boasting a win percentage of 66.7% against these opponents. That being said, Ryan Day is missing a “signature” win, after dropping to Michigan in week 14 of the last three years. The pressure is certainly on for Day and the Buckeyes to secure this crucial victory. 

As per usual, Ohio State’s offense has been explosive averaging 46 PPG this season. They are led by Will Howard, a Kansas State transfer who has impressed the Buckeye faithful this season. Howard has completed 71.5% of his passes for 1,248 yards, 12 touchdowns and three interceptions through five games this season. Howard has also impressively rushed for four touchdowns himself in that timeframe. 

Scarily for Oregon, this isn’t the strongest part of Ohio State’s game. To complement their impressive quarterback and wide receivers, Ohio State has arguably the best running back tandem in the nation. The Buckeyes great running game features Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. Judkins leads the team with 468 rushing yards and five touchdowns, while Henderson isn’t far behind him with 337 combined with 8.0 yards per carry. This is critical to note as Oregon gave up 192 yards on the ground to the nation's top running back Ashton Jeanty earlier this year. The Buckeyes will hope to wear the Ducks down through their tough running game, raising their chances of a win. 

After three straight years of losses to Michigan in week 14, Ohio State is well aware of what’s at stake here. A victory in Week 7 would not only give them the upper hand in the BIG10 title race but also solidify their position as a top contender for one of the playoff byes. The Buckeyes thrive in big games, and they will arrive in Oregon ready for a fight.

The Stakes

This game is imperative for both teams. Not only is it the No.2 vs No.3 team in the nation, but the winner likely solidifies their position as the best team in the BIG10. A loss doesn’t necessarily eliminate either team from playoff consideration but leaves little room for error with difficult schedules remaining for both.

For Ohio State, a win would solidify their position as the best team in the BIG10, a title they haven't held in quite some time. For Oregon, a victory announces to the nation that they belong in the National Championship conversation and can hang with college football's elite.

A First Half of Glory, Tanking, and Broken Records: The NBA Mid-Season Report

Author: Gideon Beck

Editor: Samuel Traynor

It’s that time of the year again. Halfway through another NBA season and things are only starting to get interesting. Maybe you’re still hungover from New Years and maybe your bank account is drained from the holidays, but there’s no better remedy for the woes of January than a good old fashioned mid-season analysis.

So far, there has been no shortage of surprises. The early success of small market teams certainly makes for exciting basketball, not to mention a level of team parity unseen in decades. It seems like players are having 50-point nights on a weekly basis as offensive numbers are soaring past what was previously thought to be impossible in the modern NBA. Meanwhile, rebuilding teams are taking advantage of their poor records to try and score the coveted Victor Wembanya lottery draft pick. One of the most concerning trends this year is the rate of injuries among young high-level talent. All of these developments will be discussed through a division-by-division analysis. I take a deep look into each team’s first half, identifying their success factors, their let downs, and, if necessary, their concerns. I start off with the Western Conference.

Northwest Division

Oklahoma CIty Thunder

Rob Carr / Getty Images

The Success Story: SGA

It’s hard to imagine a player with higher odds of winning the Most Improved Player Award this year than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. A mere four years after being traded away from the Clippers, the ‘22-‘23 season has him averaging 30.5 PTS, 5.5 AST, and 4.9REB, not to mention he makes 35% of his 3-pointers, 53% of his 2-pointers, and 91% of his free throws. Shai has become one of the most versatile offensive weapons in the league which, if all goes right, will translate into All-NBA shooting guard honours. The 2019 Clippers-Thunder trade saw L.A. receive a mid-prime Paul George and Oklahoma receive a sophomore Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari, four first round picks, and two pick swaps – it’s truly remarkable, with the benefit of hindsight, of course. Whether it’s his unique ability to maneuver his body around defenders to score in the paint, or his smooth midrange game, the 24-year-old SGA has started carving his name into NBA history with each passing game.

The Let-Down: Early defensive implosion

Despite Shai’s triumph into super-stardom, the Thunder are lacking a cohesive supporting cast. Lu Dort and Josh Giddey show promise of being good two-way facilitators in years to come, but there seems to be a lack of defensive competence otherwise. Surprisingly, they now have the tenth ranked defensive rating, a massive improvement to their dead-last ranking in October. Defensive shortcomings aren’t too surprising considering they have one the youngest teams in the NBA with an average age of 22.9. The defensive competence will increase as the team becomes more experienced, but it certainly makes OKC a noncompetitor in this year’s title race.

The Concern:

The second-overall pick from the 2022 draft, Chet Holmgren, was not only projected to be the first-overall pick ahead of Paolo Banchero, but he was also expected to be an immediate contributor to the Thunder’s ‘22-‘23 campaign. Before the season even started, the 7-foot center was playing in a pro-am game and was guarding Lebron James on a fastbreak. As he went up to block the 18-year veteran, Holmgren landed awkwardly and suffered a midfoot fracture, sidelining him for the entirety of the coming season. Sorry Thunder fans, but this rebuild has been extended once again.

Minnesota Timberwolves

David Berding / Getty Images

The Success Story: Jaden McDaniels

I think some people are going to be pissed off that it’s Jaden McDaniels selected as the Wolves’ success story over Anthony Edwards. Hear me out. The third-year power-forward has managed to maintain a field goal percentage of 53% and has been a better shot blocker than his 7-foot teammate, Rudy Gobert. He was a late-round pick in 2020 but has managed to find a starting role on a Minnesota team that is desperately trying to pave the way for a playoff run. He is an underrated bright spot amongst a flurry of team drama.

The Let-Down: Gobert trade is the worst in history?

I think it’s safe to say that if the Wolves don’t make it past the first round this year, their front office will be subjected to some of the most ferocious criticism the league has seen in a long time. Only half a season in and there persists rhetoric from fans, players, and the media that dub the Rudy Gobert trade one of the worst in NBA history. Giving up Malik Beasley, Patrick Beverley, Leandro Bolmaro, Walker Kessler, Jarred Vanderbilt, and four first round picks, the Timberwolves traded away their entire future to bank on a squad led by Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russel, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Rudy Gobert. The problem is that when Towns and Edwards aren’t shooting threes, they’re taking advantage of an empty key where they can burst through, pull up for an easy midrange, or throw down a dunk. Now with Gobert on the team, the key has become overcrowded and neither Towns nor Gobert have been able to adjust their playstyle to accommodate. Furthermore, it seems like Edwards will require more development to truly be called a number-one option on a championship team like the Wolves’ GM had hoped.

The Concern: The future

If the Gobert experiment doesn’t work out the Timberwolves are screwed. They barely have any first-round draft picks to their name for the foreseeable future. They have tried to build a championship team around a 21-year-old star and are quickly discovering that he has not yet developed the discipline to command such responsibility. If the Wolves get knocked out early or, god forbid, they manage to miss the playoffs entirely, I will have to agree with the rhetoric that says the Gobert trade was the worst in recent memory.

Portland Trail Blazers

Cary Edumdson / USA Today Sports

The Success Story: Jerami Grant

Was anyone else surprised with how little the Blazers had to give up to acquire Jerami Grant? A first-round pick plus two second-rounders was enough to secure the dynamic 28-year-old wing. Sure, Grant’s last two years in Detroit were injury plagued, but the guy was putting up 20 points per night on decent efficiency. He has steadily improved his play every year since he’s been in the league, and this year is no different. Averaging 22 points per game, he is the perfect pick-and-roll partner and has managed to keep the team afloat despite Lillard’s intermittent injury absences.

The Concern: Lillard’s Recovery

With a revitalized young core and a prime Jusuf Nurkic, it’s easy to forget that Lillard is still the captain of this franchise. He has the talent to bounce back from last year’s injuries, but he has played in only 32 games. The team’s continuity has certainly been hindered with him coming in and out of the lineup. There’s honestly not much else to say about this Blazers team. They were expected to be a club that just barely makes the play-in, and now it seems like they have real aspirations for the playoffs.

Denver Nuggets

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The Success Story: The Joker

Is there such thing as MVP voter fatigue? If so, this year’s MVP ballots may expose this psychological phenomenon. Listen, he may not be as flashy as Ja, as powerful as Giannis, or as graceful as Tatum, but we damn-well know that Nikola Jokic is one of the best centers to ever play the game. Last year, he nearly averaged a triple-double on terrific efficiency. This year, his point totals are down slightly, but only because Jamal Murray is back from injury. He is currently averaging 25 PTS, 9.9 AST, and 11 REB and he makes all of his teammates around him better in the process. He is one of the most elite passers the league has ever seen and, considering the Nuggets record of 32 and 13, it would be a crime to take their best player out of the MVP conversation.

The Concern: Depth

Denver has one of the most complete rosters in the league; there’s not too much to criticize. Kentavious Caldwell Pope and Bruce Brown were excellent offseason role player additions, although they should look to beef up their bench before the playoffs start.

Utah Jazz

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The Success Story: Lauri Markkanen

Do I smell a franchise player? While his play has plateaued (maybe even declined slightly) since the first few weeks of the season, it cannot be overstated how well Lauri Markkanen has fit into an unpressured Utah system. He has come a long way from his underwhelming years in Chicago and Cleveland where he was averaging around 14 points per game. Utah was amongst the top teams likely to tank for Victor Wembanya, seeing as they traded away both Donavan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert this offseason. Yet, what they got in return may have turned out to be far too lucrative to secure a lottery draft pick. Lauri Markkanen is averaging 24.8 PTS and 8.7 REB. Around him are Jordan Clarkson, Collin Sexton, Malik Beasley, and Mike Conley who have all played efficient team-oriented basketball; both ‘spread’ and ‘transition’ offences are their bread and butter. Despite how well they share the ball, Markkanen is their clear central piece.

The Concern: The Jazz currently have a record of 24 and 24. From a GM’s perspective, it does not make sense to win any more games. Unlike the fans in Charlotte, Houston, and Orlando, the Utah fans have had the luxury of cheering for competitive basketball thus far. I struggle to see how (or why) they would push to be above a .500 record when this year’s draft class is to be historically stacked. I’m sorry Jazz fans, but obviously your team is not built for a playoff run and you should expect to see some unprecedented tanking maneuvers in the months to come.

Pacific Division

Phoenix Suns

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The Success Story: Devin Booker

Booker is averaging 27 PTS, 5.6 AST, and 4.6 REB. If he stayed healthy, he would have remained in the MVP conversation, although more than a few players have a better case than him. The Suns are one of the most competently put-together teams in the league, and Booker is their most valuable player. Players like Mikal Bridges and Deandre Ayton go under the radar, but the Sun’s had the ninth ranked offense in the league before Booker was injured, and it has now fallen to fourteenth.

The Let-Down: Playoff performance

Last year’s Western Conference Semifinals has left a stain on the Phoenix Suns that will last a lifetime. Oozing with confidence in an important game 5 against Dallas, Booker exaggerated the contact he received while shooting in the paint; he purposely flopped to the ground and exclaimed to the courtside fans that he was imitating the “Luka Special”. After the game, Doncic responded to Booker’s mockery by walking past the media to say, “everybody acts tough when they’re up”. In the words of Michael Jordan, Luka took it personally. What followed was one of the worst playoff choke jobs of the modern NBA. The next game the Mavericks beat the Suns by 27 points to force a game 7. In game 7, Doncic shot 63% from the field and put up 35 points while Booker shot 21%, mustering 11 points. The Suns looked unequivocally checked-out from

the moment after tip-off. The Mavs won by 33 points, leaving the Suns and the entire NBA stunned by what just occurred. Their league-leading regular season record of 64 – 18 was wasted on a series that, by all stretches of the imagination, should have been a minor hurdle on their way to the finals. The Suns have been on a losing skid recently but are generally playing decent basketball again this year. It means nothing if they don’t show up to the most important games.

The Concern: Chris Paul’s health

No one’s denying that he can still be an excellent facilitator. After all, he is third all-time in assists total. However, Paul has only played in 26 games. His ability to get himself buckets is well on the decline, and a team that is in championship mode should certainly be concerned with their 37-year-old point guard’s health come playoff time.

Los Angeles Clippers

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The Success Story: Defensive dominance

Are you really surprised that the Clippers’ saviour this year would be their defense? It’s no secret that Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are the epitomes of two-way players. However, they also epitomize the fragility of the human skeletal system; they are of the most injury prone superstars in the league. It’s a miracle that George has suited up for 31 games, and Leonard 22. Players like Ivica Zubac and the ever-underrated Norm Powell have been able to keep things afloat in their stars’ absence. The team has managed to uphold the ninth-best defensive rating while having the fith-worst offensive rating, allowing them to inch their way into the 8th seed in the Western Conference at the halfway mark.

The Let-Down: John Wall

I will admit my hopes were far too high when I saw that John Wall had signed with the Clippers. The excitement around him pairing with Kawhi and George only primed me for disappointment. That’s not to say that Wall has been a negative addition to the team, but it is heartbreaking to watch him average 11.4 PTS, 5.2 AST, and 2.7 REB with subpar efficiency. Reggie Jackson has rightfully claimed his spot as starting point guard.

The Concern: Injuries, Injuries, Injuries

The Clippers do not stand a chance in the postseason if Leonard and George don’t stay healthy. Having just one of them won’t cut it. We all saw what happened to George in the play-in game last year. For god’s sake, Kawhi, let us watch a healthy Clippers team for once.

Los Angeles Lakers

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The Success Story: Anthony Davis

Before he was reinjured, Davis was looking like his New Orleans self again. He started off the season taking terrible shots and working outside the paint, leading to a team record of 0 – 5.

But as always, he was making a case for defensive player of the year. He gradually found his mojo and put up a deadly field goal rate of 62% in his last 10 games before the stress fracture in his foot.

The Let-Down: Shooting

The Lakers currently have the fifth worst 3-point percentage in the league at 33.7%. Everyone knows that in today’s league, while you may not have to follow the Golden State “Splash Brother” model of perimeter-intense offense, you certainly need to have a couple of reliable shooters on the payroll. Austin Reaves and Thomas Bryant have bright futures in that role, but they lack the defensive capability to avoid becoming a straight up liability. They are both in the negatives of the defensive box plus/minus stat category.

The Concern: Fragility

Anthony Davis has played in 25 games. Need I say more?

Sacramento Kings

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The Success Story: De’Aaron – Domantas combo

The Kings are good, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. The so-called “Beam Team”, named for their celebratory purple light beam that shoots into the Sacramento night sky after their home wins, are making a real case for a playoff run. Maybe not a deep run, but Fox and Sabonis are an exciting duo that have a bright future. Keeping in mind that the average player efficiency rating in the NBA is a score of 15, Fox and Sabonis are rated 20.5 and 23.9 respectively, which are impressive numbers for this advanced statistic. Also, has anyone noticed that the big man Sabonis is shooting 38 % from 3?

The Let-Down: Malik Monk’s defense

I’m being really picky here. There’s not too much to criticize about this up-and-coming team. It can be argued that Malik Monk, a player who has shown so much promise as an offensive weapon since being drafted by Charlotte in the first round in 2017, is showing to be a defensive liability. He is currently well under the average NBA defender according his defensive box plus/minus.

Golden State Warriors

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The Success Story: A 34-year-old Curry

This could actually be Steph Curry’s greatest season to date. On a Warriors team trying to dig themselves out of an early season hole, the ‘Baby-Faced Assassin’ has maintained a 3-point percentage of 42%, a 2-point percentage of 59%, and a true shooting percentage of 66%. Despite his 2020 injury, he hasn’t lost a step. In fact, if this year’s league wasn’t stacked with the likes of Embiid, Tatum, Doncic, and Antetokounmpo, Curry would certainly be in a serious conversation for another MVP title.

The Let-Down: James Wiseman

He was sent down to the G-League for a couple games in December, a treatment pretty rare for a second-overall pick. Let me remind you that Wiseman was picked ahead of Lamelo Ball, Tyrese Halliburton, Tyrese Maxey, and Desmond Bane in the 2017 draft class. The big man off the bench has yet to find his confidence, averaging 6.8 points per game, and a measly 3.6 rebounds.

The Concern: An injured ‘Maple Jordan’

Andrew Wiggins has played in only 27 games and was injured for most of December. The Warriors have no chance at another title without their best defender.

Southwest Division

New Orleans Pelicans

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The Success Story: The return of Zion

This article features some heavily opinionated claims that may not be empirically valid. Here’s another one of these claims for you: the Pelicans are the most exciting team in basketball. CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas, Brandon Ingram, Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, Jose Alvarado, Larry Nance; I challenge you to find another team with a more explosive and energetic roster, both starting and off the bench. Depth aside, their “crème de la crème” is Zion Williamson. He has returned from injury with a head full of steam and is the league’s master of the paint. Resembling a young Shaq with bigger hops, he makes 72% of his shots when three feet from the basket and is averaging 26 points per game.

The Concern: Brandon Ingram

This is a concern for both the Pelicans and the rest of the league. Currently, New Orleans is the 4th seed in the Western Conference and Brandon Ingram has only played in 15 games thus far. If the ‘Pels’ are as ferocious as they are without Ingram, what will they look like when they’re fully healthy? Although I would not expect a championship title without Ingram on the floor.

Dallas Mavericks

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The Success Story: Luka Magic

Everyone’s tired of hearing it, but we have to keep saying it. Luka Dončić is the future of the league. On December 27, 2022, the Slovenian god put up 60 points, 21 rebounds, and 10 assists in an overtime win against the Knicks. Down by 2 at the end of regulation, he purposely missed his last free throw, reattained the rock, and put up a miracle shot to send it into overtime. He then scored 7 points to secure the win, capping off one of the best performances the league has ever seen. Tatum, Durant, and Giannis better watch out because that historic game has

made it difficult to vote against Luka for MVP this year. After an early season slump, the Mavs are back in contention thanks to Mr. Magic.

The Let-Down: Kemba Walker

I really need to tone down my expectations when it comes to injury-prone former all-star point guards. Kemba Walker pairing up with Luka is an exciting headline, but Walker just isn’t that guy anymore. He hasn’t played a full season since 2020 and, while his efficiency was never really there, his production has gone away now too – 8 PTS, 2.1 AST, 1.8 REB.

The Concern: A one-man show

Luka has a usage rate of 38.1%, second in the league behind Giannis. Just like the James Harden Rockets throughout the 2010s, an isolated offense that requires one superstar to initiate every possession is one that cannot make it through to the finals. Yes, the Mavs arrived at the conference finals last year, but they were no match for the team-oriented Warriors. What if Luka gets hurt? What if an opposing team unravels his offensive schemes?

Memphis Grizzlies

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The Success Story: A rising young duo

When it comes to Ja Morant, there’s not much to say that hasn’t already been said. The Grizzlies are currently the 2nd seed in the Western Conference and Ja Morant is largely to thank for that, having the fourth highest usage percentage in the league. Yet, it is often the unsung heroes that iron out a team to make them a contender. For the ‘Grizz’ that player is Desmond Bane. The third-year shooting guard has tremendous chemistry with his superstar point guard. He isn’t the most efficient, nor is he the best defender, but a player who can average 21.8 points per game on a serious contending team while only 24 years of age is impressive to say the least.

The Concern: Health

It’s difficult to nitpick one of the best, most fast-paced teams. Bane is surely needed healthy in the playoffs and a title is nearly out of the question without him.

San Antonio Spurs

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The Success Story: Keldon Johnson

The Spurs are not looking for wins this year. They are in an ugly pursuit for as many losses as they can get without hindering their young players’ development. After all, Wembanyama is the ideal candidate to replace their previous franchise center in Tim Duncan. As soon as Dejounte Murray was traded to the Hawks, an opportunity presented itself to small forward Keldon Johnson. The few wins the team has gotten in the first half have been ushered in by Johnson and his steadily increasing scoring numbers. I wouldn’t say he’s a frontrunner for the Most Improved Player Award, but his sizable increase in production is nothing to scoff at.

The Let-Down: Poeltl’s shooting

Don’t get it twisted, Poeltl is a crafty center that any team lacking a big man would kill to have protecting their rim. However, there’s something to be said for versatility. Guys like Jokic, and Embiid have learned to expand their game behind the arc and shoot around three 3-pointers a game, and with good efficiency. This offensive capability has catapulted them into superstars, allowing them to space the floor, pull defenders away from the key, and dish out easy assists. Meanwhile, Poeltl has attempted a total of three 3-pointers in his entire career. If he could develop an outside shot he could be become one of the premier centers in the league.

Houston Rockets

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The Success Story: A developing young core

The Rockets may be the worst team in the league this year, but that doesn’t mean they’re the most incompetent. With the youngest team on average at 22.4, Kevin Porter, Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, and Jabari Smith make up a core that could have the highest ceiling of potential of all the rebuilding franchises. Eric Gordon is the perfect veteran mentor to help bring out that potential. Much like all the 2023 rebuilders, the Wembanyama sweepstakes are too tempting to make any more structural changes that would improve their record.

The Concern: Bobi

No one can criticize the Rockets for their ugly record. After James Harden left them in the dust by forcing a trade to Brooklyn, they were forced to enter a rebuild and have done a pretty good job thus far. A notable concern is the absence of fan-favourite Boban Marjanovic. The lovable center has only suited up 15 times this year. Whether it’s due to minor injuries or simply not being a helpful contributor, it would do the Rockets some good to put Bobi on the floor to help get some asses in seats during a tank year.

Atlantic Division

Toronto Raptors

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The Success Story: Pascal’s takeover

Before the season began, Siakam was quoted saying he wished to be a top-5 player in the league. For the first two weeks of the season, his wish came true as he was virtually unstoppable when shooting his patented spin-to-fadeaway midrange jumper. He was then sidelined for two weeks after a groin injury caused by a slip in a game against the Mavericks. Since his return, he hasn’t been able to match the scoring intensity of the league’s other big names, but there is no doubt he resides in the top 10-20 player area. He currently averages

25.5 PTS, 8.2 REB, and 6.4 AST, putting up a 52-point night against the Knicks in December. Not bad for a 27th overall pick.

The Let-Down: Scottie B.

Scottie’s numbers have dipped in most aspects of his game despite his increased field goal attempts. Call it a sophomore slump or a string of off-nights, the reigning Rookie of the Year has been one the faces of criticism on a struggling Raptors team. Fans should not be so worried. His assist percentage has shot up to 21% and his defense remains solid. He has started 2023 with newfound energy, but the way his season began stunted his confidence.

The Concern: FVV

Fred VanVleet is a shooter; it’s in his DNA. He was an all-star last year but now he is on track to have his worst shooting season yet. Hovering around 33% from behind the arc, he has become more and more unreliable to make clutch shots and effectively slows down the Raps’ offence. That doesn’t stop him from having the odd 30-point night.

Philadelphia 76ers

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The Success Story: The Beard

It was not too long ago that some NBA fans were predicting that the end of Harden’s career was sooner than later. After forcing his way out of Houston and showing up to training camp out of shape, he went to play on a Brooklyn Nets team ripe with controversy. Harden then forced his way out of yet another team to play for the 76ers alongside Embiid. The past two years have shown us a declining Harden that focuses on playmaking over shot-creation. It turns out that in Philadelphia this year, that’s exactly what they need. Harden is averaging over 10 assists per game and the team’s record is 28 and 16.

The Concern: Tyrese Maxey

Another case of injuries getting the best of young talent. Maxey is a shifty up-and-coming point guard. He was sidelined for the entirety of December, leading many to worry about the success of this team come playoffs. He is back on the roster in January, but foot injuries can often derail an entire season.

Brooklyn Nets

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The Success Story: A rapid turnaround

A team that centres around Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving is always a contender. Yet, these future hall-of-famers managed to start their season off with a record of 2 – 6, leading to the firing of head coach Steve Nash. Now, a whole two months after the dramatic ordeal, the Nets have a record of 27 and 16, among the top teams in the east. Some say it is due is due to a newfound team chemistry. More significantly, it is because Durant is having a career year and Nic Claxton is the most efficient role player in the league. Durant is averaging 30 PTS, 6.7 REB, and 5.3 AST while Claxton has the highest true shooting percentage in the NBA with 70%. True shooting, which factors in all field goals and free throws, is a stat dominated by all-star big men. Fortunately for the Nets, Claxton is a player who needs few touches to make an impact. As Kyrie and KD put up over 25 points on any given night, they are supported by a center as reliable and unselfish as any.

The Let-Down: Ben Simmons

Ben isn’t the worst point guard in the league, but he is certainly not the best. After playing in three straight all-star games, his career has been tormented by injuries and drama associated with the 76ers organization. He was the first-overall pick in the 2016 draft and was expected to develop a solid jump shot to pair with his elite passing and driving abilities. Seven years later and his shot is nowhere to be seen. He has taken one failed 3-point attempt this season which makes it easier for defenders to leave him open at the arc and cover his passing lanes.

New York Knicks

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The Success Story: The return of Randle

Julius Randle was in the all-star game in 2021 but he missed out in 2022 as his numbers dropped across the board. After missing the playoffs, he received truckloads of criticism from the staunch Knicks fans which seems to have proven an effective motivator. Randle has upped his 3-point attempts to nearly eight per game, sinking 34% of them. He averages 10.7 rebounds and 24 points per game. It would have to be a cataclysmic second half for Randle not to make an all-NBA team.

The Concern: RJ Barrett

No one is saying he is a draft bust. He is only 22 and is still developing his game. The shooting guard hasn’t exactly wowed the league with his lackluster defence, homing in a defensive box plus/minus that is 1.6 points worse than the league average.

Boston Celtics

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The Success Story: The most dominant duo

The Celtics have the best record in the league and the most unstoppable duo. Jaylen Brown is averaging 27 points per game while Jayson Tatum makes a real case for MVP with 31 points per game. Everything about this team screams title contention. No team puts up more points than the Celtics do. In fact, the 2022-2023 Celtics currently have the highest offensive rating in their franchise’s history.

The Concern: Robert Williams

Williams is probably the Celtics’ best defender and he was a huge reason for their 2022 finals run. He has been out for most of the season, returning for the first time in December with limited minutes. As a result of his absence, the Celtics defensive rating sits at eighth place in the league, an immense downgrade from last year’s second place rating.

Central Division

Chicago Bulls

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The Success Story: DeMar DeRozan

The Bulls are in limbo. Sitting at a lowly play-in spot in the Eastern Conference standings, they aren’t quite sure whether to trade away some assets to make way for a rebuild, or if they should hedge their bets. By trading away future picks for another star to pair alongside DeRozan, Lavine, and Vucevic, the Chicago Bulls could assemble some sort of playoff presence; they risk throwing away their whole future. Luckily, the 33-year-old DeRozan is continuing to dominate the old-fashioned midrange game, sinking 51% of his shots from 3-10 feet out.

The Concern: Lonzo Ball’s knee injury

Lonzo is an ultra-skilled defensive guard. Last season the Bulls had a top-5 record while Lonzo was healthy. After he got injured, their defensive schemes began hemorrhaging and became a first-round playoff exit. It is unlikely Lonzo will log a single minute on the court this season as the longevity of his career altogether is in question.

Indiana Pacers

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The Success Story: Haliburton’s new gig

Last year the Pacers made a blockbuster trade to move Domantas Sabonis to Sacramento for rising star Tyrese Haliburton, turning out to be the ultimate win-win scenario. Haliburton leads the league in assists per game with 10.2. The Pacers were not supposed to be playoff participants at all. Haliburton’s ability to always find the open man makes the entire roster better and has led to an impressive winning record for a team expected to tank for Wembanyama.

Another Success Story: Ben Mathurin

There’s virtually nothing to criticize about this team’s first half. It would be a shame to talk about them without mentioning their dazzling rookie Benedict Mathurin. He is averaging 17 points per game coming off the bench. If Paolo Banchero manages to derail his season, Mathurin is next in line for Rookie of the Year, while also making a case for Sixth Man of the Year.

Milwaukee Bucks

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The Success Story: Giannis’ prime

It’s hard to say if this is Giannis’ best year yet… it sure looks like it. Khris Middleton has missed almost the entire season thus far, leaving Giannis with only Jrue Holiday, Brooke Lopez, Grayson Allen, and Jevon Carter to take on starting minutes. This team should not be contenders without Middleton, but yet they are one of the best teams in the east and have the fourth ranked defensive rating. Giannis is averaging 31 points per game with terrific efficiency. He has the highest usage rate in the league and is basically putting this shorthanded Bucks team on his back. The ‘Greek Freak’ is 28, meaning this year will be among the peak years of his ability.

The Concern: Long term practicality

Giannis cannot fathomably keep this up. He will need rest before the playoffs. Middleton is absolutely vital to the survival of this team down the stretch.

Detroit Pistons

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The Success Story: Bojan Bogdanovic

Detroit knows that they are well in the mix for the Wembanyama sweepstakes. They stand to benefit from having the worst record possible while maintaining positive development for their young talent. With Cunningham out for the season, 33-year-old Bojan Bogdanovic has stepped up and become a formidable shooting veteran. He is averaging a career high 21 points per game and is shooting 42% from 3-point range. It’s become very clear that 2023 is a tank year for the Pistons, but the young guys still need guidance from veterans like Bojan.

The Concern: Cunningham’s injury

Cade’s tibia fracture should be very concerning for the Pistons front office. Young players are more overworked than ever and the Ball brothers are a prime example of what could happen to Cade’s long term health. Through their youth, both LaMelo and Lonzo trained vigorously to be lottery draft picks. Now Lonzo is out for the rest of the season and LaMelo has only played 22 games due to a prolonged ankle sprain. Last year’s first-overall pick, Cade Cunningham, also has a stress fracture that has sidelined him for the season. No one can really point fingers here, but one could deduce that players who strive be a lottery pick put in copious workloads that can be detrimental to their long-term health.

Cleveland Cavaliers

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The Success Story: The ‘Spida’ trade

71 points. On January 2, Donovan Mitchell became the eighth player in NBA history to reach 71 points in a single game. More impressively, he is the only player to put up 70 points and 10 assists in a single game. It’s easy to come to the conclusion that we witnessed one of the greatest performances ever. It was odd seeing one of the league’s biggest names wind up on a small market team this offseason. After all, Donovan is from New York and he was hoping to play for the Knicks. It turns out there couldn’t have been a roster more suited to Mitchell than the Cavs. What the city lacks in flair and international notoriety, it makes up for in lob threats (Evan Mobley), lockdown defense (Jarret Allen), and elite playmaking (Darius Garland). It’s one of the best starting rosters the NBA has to offer. Of course, the signing of Mitchell would make them immediate contenders.

The Let-Down: Lack of wings

The Cavs are in need of some wing depth. Caris LeVert is a fine role player and Evan Mobley is blossoming into a star. But there is a real chance this team has title contention in them this year. Some extra bench support couldn’t hurt.

Southeast Division

Atlanta Hawks

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The Success Story: Dejounte Murray

The Hawks have been spiralling since December. A series of losing streaks coupled with tension between Trae Young and head coach Nate McMillan have led to a record around 500. On a more positive note, Dejounte Murray has lived up to his trade value as an impactful two-way guard. He leads the team in steals with 1.7 per game and has maintained a steady split of 20.6 PTS, 6.1 AST, and 5.5 REB. As it is known throughout the league, Trae Young is a complete and utter liability on the defensive end. Murray’s presence makes it more difficult for opponents to burst through the perimeter defense.

The Let-Down: Trae Young’s defense

At what point will Young’s defensive incompetency outweigh his offensive greatness? Sure, he is averaging 27.2 points per game, but he also has the highest turnover rate and the worst defensive box plus/minus on his team. Most would assume that this former lottery pick would have developed some defense by now.

The Concern: Clint Capela

Atlanta’s best rebounder has been injured through most of December and the new year. His absence has certainly contributed to the teams drop in the standings. If he cannot remain healthy then Hawks fans should expect further misery, regardless of Okongwu’s formidable play as starting center.

Orlando Magic

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The Success Story: Paolo Banchero

There’s a lot to love about this team. The rise of Franz Wagner; the comeback of Bol Bol; the leadership of Terrence Ross; the subtle yet consistent play of Markelle Fultz. It’s all fun to watch. The team’s highest scorer is something else entirely. Clearly the frontrunner for rookie of the year, Paolo Banchero has burst onto the scene with fire and fury. Paolo joined Lebron and Kareem as the only players ever to put up 25 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists in their NBA debut. It’s exceedingly rare to see a rookie make such an impact, let alone lead their team in points per game.

The Let-Down: Mo Bamba

Mo has officially lost his starting spot to Wendell Carter and Bol Bol. It’s unfortunate. Mo has been improving his production and efficiency since his rookie year only to be confined to the bench this year. What’s odd is that he has continued to progress, especially his 3-point shot, but is still denied prime minutes. It looks as though Bamba is not a part of the Magic’s rebuild plan and he should expect to be traded away before the deadline.

Washington Wizards

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The Success Story: Kristaps Porzingis

A reminder: Washington traded away Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans to receive former all-star Kristaps Porzingis and a second round pick. It’s safe say Washington won that trade. Porzingis has never played better. His value plummeted when playing alongside Doncic, but now with Beal, Porzingis is putting up more points than he did his all-star year with better efficiency.

The Let-Down: NBA limbo

Washington will probably be a play-in team at best. They are kind of halfway between a Wembanyama tanker and a team trying to make a playoff run. They have too much talent to be lottery favourites, and they don’t have enough to be serious competitors. It’s a predicament that might be worse than finishing in last place.

Charlotte Hornets

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The Success Story: Scary Terry

The Hornets tasted competency last year. For most of the season they hovered around the seventh seed but ultimately missed the playoffs. This year they are in full tank mode. Luckily, having one of the worst records in the league isn’t all bad. ‘Scary’ Terry Rozier is a human highlight reel, always ready to throw down a dunk to breathe life into a dead Carolina arena.

The Concern: LaMelo’s injury

He’s played in less than half the games so far. He sprained the same ankle twice this season and it’s not even the all-star break. Michael Jordan and his front office staff have much to fear if Melo can’t stay healthy throughout the second half.

Miami Heat

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The Success Story: Bam Adebayo

Since his all-star season in 2020, the league has recognized Bam’s tidy jumper, elite rebounding, and effortless defense. Now it could be argued he is more valuable to the Heat than Jimmy Butler. Of course, Butler’s playoff performances have historically been out of this world. But this year Jimmy Buckets can’t stay healthy or consistent enough to be dubbed the best Heater. That title is reserved for Bam and his 21.5 PTS, 10 REB.

The Let-Down: Duncan Robinson

Robinson is contractually guaranteed $17 million this year, $18 million the following year, $19 million in 2025, and $20 million 2026. He truly has one of the most untradeable contracts. The Heat’s front office made a rash decision to splurge on their newfound sharpshooter after the 2021 season. It turns out Robinson was not as advertised. He went from shooting 46% from 3-point range in 2020 to 33% in 2023. His minutes have dropped dramatically and so have his point totals. He is the perfect example of an NBA let-down… no offense, Duncan.

It's looking like the second half of the 2022-2023 season will be even more exciting, upsetting, and record-breaking as the first half. Even for the tanking teams, the coming months should be entertaining as the looming trade deadline could change the future of organizations. Players are putting up more points than ever and the top teams are looking evenly matched. If that doesn’t make for great basketball, I don’t know what does.

All statistics are up to date as of January 19, 2023

Data Sources: Basketball Reference

World Cup Preview: Who Will Win it All?

Authors: Manav Jain, Matthew Hobbs, Colin Wong, Alex Madden, Stefan D’Ippolito

Player Cards: Colin Wong

Editor: Manav Jain

The 2022 World Cup is here! Despite untraditional circumstances, with the tournament taking place in the middle of the season, the top teams are here to play - seeking to bring home the biggest trophy in all of sport. The QSAO team is here to break down the five biggest contenders in this tournament. According to an average of 16 data-driven models predicting the World Cup (assembled by Jan Van Harren), there is a 57.47% chance that one of Argentina, Brazil, England, France, or Spain will reign victorious. Let’s have a look at how the sides stack up.

Argentina

Getty Images

Championship Probability: 12.42%

Having a well-rounded team that just last year, won their first international trophy since 1993, Argentina are looking like legitimate contenders. Add on the important element that this will be the last World Cup for their captain and all time leading scorer, Lionel Messi, the Albicelestes should be more than up for making a deep run in the 2022 World Cup.

Tactical Overview

Argentina’s manager Lionel Scaloni took over the side after their Round of 16 exit in the 2018 World Cup. Since then, Argentina have only suffered defeat in four of the 50 games they have played, being unbeaten for over three years. 

Unlike Argentina’s sides of the past that have focused on fitting in as many of their talented attackers as possible, this team is focused on creating a strong and secure defensive foundation and running their attacks through Lionel Messi. Without the ball, Argentina tend to maintain a 4-4-2 formation, with their intense midfielders and attack picking moments to press the opposition while relieving Messi of such responsibilities. In their own half, Argentina are very compact and tough to break through, sitting in a 4-4-1-1 formation, and leaving Messi free for any counter attacking opportunities. 

Argentina’s Projected Starting XI and Key Substitutes

Argentina’s forward play is flexible, their attacking style is a mix of intricate passing buildups, as well as direct counter-attacks. Rather than being focused on a distinct method of attacking, Scaloni sets up his side to give his talented attackers the freedom of picking their opportunities to attack in different ways. Their formation in attack shifts to more of a 4-3-3, with the left sided midfielder tucking in and Ángel Di María pushing forward. Typically, the left back, Nicolás Tagliafico is given more license to get forward and overlap than his right sided equivalent.

Argentina’s build up play is variable, with the side willing to take both direct or measured approaches.

Liam Tharme/The Athletic

The Star

Since Scaloni has taken over, Argentina’s style has been focused on getting the best out of their star man, Lionel Messi. He enjoyed a fantastic 2021 Copa América campaign where he had 4 goals and 5 assists in 7 games. Lionel Messi’s strike partner for Argentina, whether it be Lautaro Martínez or Julián Álvarez will be intense defensively, picking up Messi’s defensive duties. In attack, Messi is at the centre of everything Argentina creates, and his performance in this World Cup will be a large amount of what decides Argentina’s fate. La Pulga is a complete attacking threat, ranking in the 99th percentile for dribbles completed, 98th percentile for non-penalty expected goals, and 97th percentile for expected assists [2].

The X-Factor

Giovani Lo Celso has been an important part of Scaloni’s Argentina side, playing a hybrid role between being a defensively responsible left midfielder and defense, while being able to move into midfield when Argentina have possession. However, a muscle tear and a subsequent surgery has resulted in Lo Celso being ruled out of the World Cup, leaving an important gap in Argentina’s midfield. Filling this hole will likely be Brighton’s Alexis Mac Allister who will be tasked with the responsibility of balancing his attacking and defensive responsibilities while playing a role he is not too familiar with. Mac Allister has enjoyed a fantastic start to the 2022-23 season with Brighton, albeit as more of a deep-lying playmaker. His ability to rise to the challenge in perform in this new role will be influential on how well Argentina will fare in this World Cup.

Brazil

Henry Romero/Reuters

Championship Probability: 19.52%

The tournament favourites, Brazil are in fine form ahead of their 2022 World Cup campaign, having gone unbeaten in the qualifiers for the tournament through 17 games, and conceding just 5 goals over that span. 

Tactical Overview 

Brazil played in several different formations in qualifying, but have looked their best playing a 4-2-3-1. They will tend to switch to a 4-2-4 when attacking, with Neymar shifting from a traditional number 10 role into a more advanced position alongside the other striker, who was most often Richarlison. They can easily transition from defence to attack through their double pivot of Casemiro and Fred, the former having been a key in numerous Champions League-winning Real Madrid sides. The fullbacks tend to stay quite narrow and don’t typically push on, whereas the wingers like to stay high and wide, often hugging the touchlines. These tactics allow Brazil to get the best from their star man Neymar who can drop deep to get a pass or drift wide and collect from one of the fullbacks. 

Brazil attempts to keep the ball in the midfield third, forcing the opposition to push up the pitch, after which they play balls for their attackers to run onto. 

As far as the Starting XI goes, most players seem nailed on, but both ST and LB seem to be up for debate. Tite has seemed to prefer playing Richarlison up top, however, there is a question of whether Jesus’ excellent form for Premier League leaders Arsenal be enough for him to get into the Starting XI. A key element Jesus brings over Richarlison is his playmaking which might be necessary to break teams down. Alex Sandro seems the more likely left-back to start. However, his recent form might leave a spot for Telles in the lineup. 

Brazil’s Projected Starting XI and Key Substitutes

The Star

Although it might be the most obvious pick, Neymar is certainly Brazil’s star player, and their success will rely primarily on getting the best out of him. His 8 goals and 8 assists in 10 matches led Brazil in both categories as he looks to continue that form into what he said could be his last World Cup. He ranks in the 99th percentile for Shot-Creating Actions per 90 (6.59) and Progressive Passes (6.59) per 90 showing his influence in Brazil’s attacking efforts as he often is involved in bringing the ball toward the goal or creating a shot opportunity for his teammates as well as scoring numerous himself.

The X-Factor

A problem Brazil could find themselves in is needing something past the hour mark in a match, considering it would be expected that most teams will sit back against them. Thus, a fresh set of legs will be very important and as far as super subs go, Rodrygo finds himself right at the top of that list. Although the 21-year-old has not had many chances to play for Brazil in the qualifiers, his form at Real Madrid this season might be enough for him to make appearances off the bench for Brazil. His famous double against Manchester City in the latter stages of the 2nd leg of the Champions League semi-final still comes to mind as one of the most clutch performances in recent history. The right-winger ranks in the 96th percentile for Touches in the opponent’s penalty area per 90 with 6.72 as well as the 93rd percentile for pass completion % per 90 with 83.9%. The winger also averages over 3 shots per 90, meaning his intent towards goal could be vital in getting Brazil a late goal.

England

John Walton/PA Images/Imago Images

Championship Probability: 6.98%

England’s recent international form is a topic of great discussion approaching the world's biggest sporting event. With two recent losses to Hungary, one to Italy and relegation in the Nations League Gareth Southgate’s job relies on a strong result in this World Cup.

Tactical Overview

Gareth Southgate’s brand of football is not very popular amongst fans. Many have said that England’s style of play is very boring and defensive. It is no secret that England plays a style of football that allows the opposing team to play onto them. While maintaining the pace of play, the side most often finds themselves in their own half, building up slowly and meticulously. With this in mind, England is forced to solely play on the counter and attack from set pieces. They ranked 1st in UEFA for set piece goals and 2nd in set piece xG during the World Cup Qualifiers. Another fair criticism heading Southgate’s way is their habit of parking the bus after taking leads in big games. Such was the case in the Euro 2020 Final, World Cup 2018 Semi-final, and the quarter-final in which they all failed to hold onto 1-0 leads.

Formation wise this World Cup, we will likely be seeing England play in a 4-3-3 formation with one defensive midfielder and two central midfielders. England can play very dynamically as sometimes they transition into a 4-2-3-1 with either Mount or Grealish taking the role of the number ten. During the European Championship, they also played a hybrid of 3-4-3 where Kyle Walker slipped into a centre-back role and Kieran Tripper into a right-wingback role. This will likely be the case in certain games later in the tournament where England faces higher-quality opposition. England can be very creative in attacking midfield as they have many players to fill the roles such as Phil Foden, Jack Grealish, and Mason Mount. All three can play on the wing as well.

England’s Projected Starting XI and Key Substitutes

The Star

The only place where England is non-negotiable is up front where Captain Harry Kane has featured in most games for the squad in the last 5 years. For both his goal-scoring ability and his creativity, Harry Kane is the man to lead England into Qatar. Second in all-time scoring for England at 51 goals, Kane’s finishing has been elite for years. He is also an incredible asset in the air, which plays to England’s liking of set pieces. Kane, scoring 16 of 19 senior England penalties is also an elite penalty taker, almost guaranteeing conversion for England in key moments.

The X-Factor

With a burst of recent form from Arsenal’s wonder boy, Bukayo Saka is heading in the right direction to make a big impact for England in Qatar. Saka is a very busy attacker who gets tons of touches in the attacking third and will hopefully pair up well with Sterling and Kane as he does with Gabriel Jesus and Martinelli back in London. He is in the top 25% for all expected goals, assists, non-penalty goals, and total shots. His killer instinct in front of goal this year has been a key to Arsenal’s recent success as well as his ability to create big chances. Saka continuing his club form onto the international level will be crucial for England’s World Cup chances. 

France

James Hill/New York Times

Championship Probability: 9.41%

As the reigning World Cup winners, France will be looking to become the first nation since Brazil (1958, 1962) to win back-to-back World Cup titles. Les Bleus will also be looking to end a World Cup champions’ curse dating back to 1998. Since 1998 there have been four World Cup winners from Europe (France 1998, Italy 2006, Spain 2010, and Germany 2014), all of whom have failed to progress from the group stage of the following tournament. 

Tactical Overview

Injuries to key players Pogba, Kante, and Benzema have created chances for several less-established players like Tchouameni and Rabiot to step into the starting XI.  

Benzema’s injury, in particular, will change the way that France will look to attack. Instead of Coach Didier Deschamps’ preferred 4-3-1-2 formation with fluid movement between the front three of Benzema, Mbappe, and Griezmann up top, he will likely shift to a 4-2-3-1 formation with Giroud leading the line and the trio of Mbappe, Griezmann, and Dembele behind him in support. Alternatively, Deschamps could lineup more defensively in a 4-3-3 shape, replacing one of his front four (likely Giroud or Dembele) with the more defensive-minded Camavinga or Guendouzi.

Statistically, Giroud and Benzema profile as very different players, highlighted by Giroud's lack of involvement in build-up play as seen by his 22.15 passes attempted per 90 minutes (47th percentile), 0.84 progressive passes (16th percentile) and 0.2 dribbles completed (2nd percentile). Meanwhile, Benzema averages 44.61 passes attempted per 90 minutes (98th percentile), 3.78 progressive passes (96th percentile), and 0.89 dribbles completed (54th percentile).

Giroud likes to play as more of a target man, looking to get involved around the box often with his back to goal with balls played to feet or in the air, with the trio of players behind him looking to run into the space past him or to receive the ball in nearby positions with a short layoff. France will not rely on Giroud to score goals; in fact, he failed to score a goal or to even register a shot on target in the 2018 World Cup, the burden will instead be placed on the combination of Mbappe, Griezmann and Dembele.

France’s Projected Starting XI and Key Substitutes

The Star

With the Ballon D’or winning Benzema having to pull out of the French squad due to injury, France will need Mbappe to step up and score goals to go deep in the tournament. Mbappe comes into this World Cup looking to build on his last, where he scored 4 goals as a teenager and was awarded the Best Young Player Award. The now 23-year-old Frenchman has netted 12 goals in 14 Ligue 1 appearances this season for his club side PSG, ranking him in the 99th percentile of forwards in Europe’s Big 5 leagues for goals per 90 minutes, and has additionally ranked in the 99th percentile for total shots, non-penalty expected goals + assists, touches in the opposition box, and progressive passes received. The average of 11.76 progressive passes received per 90 minutes is a good representation of how Mbappe likes to play. He will be expected to exploit the spaces in behind opposition defences with frequent runs beyond the striker Giroud.

The X-Factor

With injuries to established midfielders Pogba and Kante, France will be relying on Tchouameni to run the show in the midfield at this World Cup (and for many future tournaments). Having been signed for a reported €80 million fee last summer by Real Madrid (ESPN), expectations are high for the deep-lying midfielder. Tchouameni excels defensively both on the ground and in the air. According to FBREF, Tchouameni averages 2.72 interceptions per 90 minutes (99th percentile) and wins 2.19 aerial duels per 90 minutes (91 percentile). Tchouameni is also comfortable in possession and build-up play. The midfielder averages 5.61 progressive passes per 90 minutes (93rd percentile), completes an average of 68.4 passes per 90 minutes (91st percentile) and completes his passes at a rate of 88.3% (89th percentile). For France to go far in the tournament, a big performance from Tchouameni will be required. Expect Tchouameni to show why Real Madrid paid an initial fee of €80 million last summer to sign him from Monaco CF and to cement a place in the French starting XI moving forward.

Spain

Reuters

Championship Probability: 9.14%

Spain has been a powerhouse in international football for many years with the heights of their power taking place from 2008-2012 when they won two Euros and one World Cup in succession. With the likes of Xavi, Iniesta, Casillas and many more in their prime, one can see why they were so dominant. Now with a fresh group of young and hungry Spaniards, the question remains, can they reach the heights that the legends of before achieved? With their strong showings in Euro 2020 and World Cup qualifiers one would be mistaken to think otherwise. 

Tactical Overview

With the guidance of their manager, Luis Enrique, this young Spanish team encapsulates Spanish football to the fullest. They play high-possession football with their last time registering under 60% possession being in March 2020. Not only do they keep possession well, but they are one of the best-pressing teams in the tournament. In Euro 2020, Spain had a press success rate of 36.4%, rated first in the tournament. They also had the best Sequence Start Distance in the tournament at 47.3 meters, meaning they were winning the ball higher up the pitch than all the other teams. Spain tends to play in a 4-3-3 formation with one holding midfielder and two more creative outlets on either side of him. The four defenders usually play a high line to keep up with the press, with the fullback overlapping on occasion. With the fullbacks overlapping, the wingers tend to cut on the inside to allow space for them. 

Spain’s Projected Starting XI and Key Substitutes

The Star

Despite only being 19 years old, Pedri has already established himself as a certified starter in Luis Enrique’s team. Pedri is essential in linking up the defence and the attack and he is in good form for Barcelona, where he plays his club football. Pedri is also an extremely effective transition player, averaging 5.42 progressive passes and receiving 4.57 progressive passes per 90 minutes played, which are in the 90th and 95th percentile respectively, of players in Europe’s top 5 leagues. Given Spain’s possession style of play, their midfield is of utmost importance in creating chances and organizing the press. This means Pedri will be tested on countless occasions but given what he has shown in his young career, there is every reason to believe he will continue to shine as Spain’s star player. 

The X-Factor

Even though Spain does an excellent job at keeping possession, they do not tend to put the ball in the back of the net as often as most would think. In World Cup qualifying, Spain averaged 1.87 goals per game. This does not seem awful, but when comparing Spain to the teams they were playing, such as when they put 4 goals past the 78th-ranked Georgia, this is not up to Spain’s standards. Also, when comparing them to other top nations, such as Germany, who averaged 3.6 goals per game and England, who averaged 3.9 goals per game, one can see the problem Spain has. Morata is key in fixing said problem and just might be the key to Spain winning the World Cup. Morata, like Spain, did not have a fantastic World Cup qualifying in terms of scoring. He averaged 0.37 goals per 90 minutes played. With that being said, Morata has enjoyed good club form this year averaging 0.53 goals per 90 in a very defensive Atletico Madrid side. If Morata can keep this form going, or even improve, then Spain has a very good chance at going all the way in this year’s World Cup. 

With so many talented players and teams at the World Cup, results could go a number of ways. Sides that we have not even covered such as the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Portugal, Uruguay, and more could all conceivably win the World Cup as well, it is tournament football after all. Let us know which side you think will triumph in 2022 on social media or the comment section below!

Data Sources: Jan Van Haaren, FBREF, The Athletic, ESPN, Tifo IRL, Transfermarkt

What's Different With the Toronto Maple Leafs This Year?

By Liam Kindred

If there's one thing to know about being a Maple Leafs fan, it's to never get your hopes up about a regular season. Over the last few years, fans have seen the iconic franchise break their franchise records for regular-season wins and points yet continuously come up short in the opening round of the playoffs.

The Leafs entered this season coming off a 7-game loss to the rival Canadiens, seeing Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner combine for just one goal while completely shut down by Phillip Danault and company.

A deeper dive into the 2021-22 Leafs shows a far more balanced team than in recent years. Production from the bottom six forward group, a stout defensive core, and a stunning first-half from Jack Campbell in his first season as a starter signals something very dangerous to Leaf fans everywhere: Hope.

#Leafs lines in warmup (Game 7 vs. MTL):

Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Galchenyuk-Kerfoot-Nylander
Mikheyev-Engvall-Simmonds
Thornton-Foligno-Spezza

Rielly-Brodie
Dermott-Holl
Sandin-Bogosian

Campbell starts
Andersen

— Kristen Shilton (@kristen_shilton) May 31, 2021

Full Leafs lineup vs Pens - this is how they go against Crosby and Co. tonight:

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kampf-Kase
Engvall-Spezza-Simmonds

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Sandin
Dermott-Holl

Campbell starts
Mrazek backs up

— mark zwolinski (@markzwol) February 17, 2022

As Jake Muzzin returns from injury (he will take the place of Travis Dermott or Timothy Liljegren depending on the night), the differences in the Leafs Game 7 lineup outside of the return of John Tavares are not in the form of big names, yet have still been highly effective. The minor offseason acquisitions of Kyle Dubas have performed well above expectations- the most notable of these signings being Michael Bunting, a player that had only played in 26 NHL games before this season and was selected to play for Team Canada at the 20-21 IIHF World Championships.

Credit: John Blacker, Canadian Press

Seen below, Goals Against Replacement measures player performance based on total goals added to the team relative to a replacement-level player. GAR compresses value based on even-strength offense and defense, powerplay offense, penalty drawing, penalty taking, and faceoff. Using regression techniques, value is calculated and summarized for each player- for example, shot generation and scoring are used as drivers for even-strength offense.

The stat can give an idea- albeit a rough one- of the total value generated by a player. In this case, bars look at actual numbers versus expected numbers based on these factors, with blue indicating positive and red indicating negative results. xGAR, or expected goals above replacement, aims to calculate the number of goals a player would expect to get based on their opportunities.

Source: Evolve Hockey

Seen as a Zach Hyman replacement with early reports before the season listing Bunting as an x-factor for this offense and a potential 20-goal scorer, the first-liner has been a welcome surprise for the Leafs on a sub-$1M deal compared to Hyman’s $5.5M AAV in Edmonton. The 26-year-old rookie has 33 points through 48 games, tied for the league lead in penalties drawn at 27 while on pace and is on pace for a 56 point season (25 Goals, 31 Assists).

While a slightly differing xGAR total does indicate a potential slight cooldown on Bunting’s high point total based on shooting percentages, it cannot be denied that he has been an incredible add for the Leafs. Refreshingly, an extra year for Bunting on his discount deal makes it hard to miss Hyman, especially with the complete game and edge he brings night in, night out.

What makes this such a welcome addition? In the last two series that saw losses to Montreal and Columbus, the team relied way too heavily on the ‘big four’ to generate offence. Not to excuse the fact that the team should have won both of these series, however the lack of depth scoring made it a lot easier for teams to set their line matchups.

This problem existed throughout each of the prior two seasons and continued into the playoffs, with this year’s team looking much more positive in this aspect. Bunting has not been the only welcome surprise for the Leafs. Ilya Mikheyev and Ondrej Kase are on pace to finish this season right around the 20-goal mark and Jason Spezza is set to close out around 30 points, these three guys will have an important impact come playoff time.

Power-Play Prowess

Credit: Billy Hurst, AP Images

It was around this point of last season when the powerplay went ice cold only managing to score 6 goals on 76 attempts (7.8%) in the last 30 games. Starting the season newly-promoted Assistant Coach Spencer Carbery took over for Manny Malhotra in running the powerplay to incredible results.

Carbery’s new system is topping the NHL through the first 48 games of the season converting 31.6% of their opportunities. Incredibly, this number is 4.7% higher than the second-highest St. Louis Blues. The difference between the Leafs and second-place Blues is less than the distance between St. Louis and the 10th-place Colorado Avalanche (23.7%), an incredible feat for the Leafs.

The main difference between this season’s power play and the end of last season is its lack of predictability, with PP1 players constantly rotating through different positions. Take a look at this series of tweets showcasing the Leafs powerplay lines, via David Alter on Twitter.

Source: David Alter, @dalter, Twitter

This setup has been consistent over the past few weeks, with Marner and Matthews rotating between the different flanks while Nylander and Tavares rotate the bumper position in the center of the umbrella. You will also notice that cross-seam pass is a lot less common this year making this year's powerplay much more of a dynamic threat as opposed to past years.

Matthews (20) and Nylander (18) are leading the team in power-play points with Marner (12) looking like much more of a scoring threat in this system. After not scoring a power-play goal since the 19-20 season, he has four since returning from his injury and has been on a heater with 20 points in his last 10 games.

The key part of it all is Auston Matthews- who’s on pace for the first 50-goal season of his career after a COVID-shortened season had him fall just short last year. Overall, the powerplay has been producing consistently and the offensive talent it contains will give them a clear advantage over any team that they play in the playoffs.

Player Spotlight

Source: Kirby Lee, USA Today Sports

One of the most important pieces of the offense throughout this point in the season has been Alex Kerfoot. He has been quietly having one of his best seasons in the NHL, getting top-six minutes consistently playing alongside Tavares and Nylander. This opportunity has allowed him offensive freedom which has translated into a big increase in point production. As seen, Kerfoot is a darling of the GAR stat, adding 19 goals this season compared to a replacement-level player.

Source: Evolve Hockey

In his two most recent seasons with the Leafs, Kerfoot was used as a depth forward, often playing in a shutdown role. When UFA David Kampf was acquired last offseason, the bottom six instantly became much stronger defensively which was a big factor in Kerfoot’s ability to move up the lineup. Kerfoot currently has 33 points with 30 of them at even strength which is on par with Patrick Kane and Evgeny Kuznetsov. He will have an underrated effect on the team in the playoffs as his ability to generate offense for the second line will help take the pressure off the high-powered Matthews line.

Since his standoff with Kyle Dubas to sign a contract back in December of 2018, it always seemed that William Nylander to regain approval from the majority of Leaf's fans. After a disappointing second-half to that 2018-19 season, last season he proved that he’s worth every bit of his deal with the Leafs. He was by far the best forward in the seven-game series in the Habs, totaling 8 points on 5 goals and 3 assists. With Tavares, Matthews and Marner all missing games throughout this season, Nylander has consistently been one of the most reliable forwards to generate offensive chances.

Source: Evolve Hockey

Nylander’s point totals sit at 45 points through 46 games while serving as a key element of the aforementioned powerplay, totalling the second-most power-play points on the team (6 goals, 14 assists). Nylander will be a very important piece of this offence down the stretch and makes his line a legitimate goal-scoring threat every time they are on the ice.

Similar to Alex Kerfoot, Morgan Rielly has been having one of his best years as a Leaf- on pace for 71 points, one shy of his career-high from the 2018-19 season. He’s a player that has been through a lot with the organization, experiencing the full rebuild and most recently signing a lengthy extension that will see him at Scotiabank Arena for the next seven years.

Source: Evolve Hockey

The Leafs defensive situation has been through a lot through the first half of the season- losing players to injury and COVID protocols on a regular basis. The overall lack of defensive depth in the organization has led Sheldon Keefe to rely heavily on veterans such as TJ Brodie, Rielly and Muzzin.

Rielly is seeing career highs in ice time and has been averaging upwards of 24 minutes a night. If rumours of GM Kyle Dubas shopping around for a depth defenseman are sound, some pressure may be taken off Rielly during the playoffs. The addition of TJ Brodie has allowed him a lot more freedom to take chances offensively- which puts him in the top 96th percentile of the league for offensive production.

Looking Ahead

Source: Claus Andersen, Getty Images

With the trade deadline around the corner and the Leafs in a buying position, there are a few of areas that could use some strengthening to make them a harder team to play against come April. Kyle Dubas has already come out and said that the team has the potential to be aggressive at the deadline to address their weak spots.

A lack of defensive depth by way of the many injuries the team has experienced is a part of this. When healthy, this defense core can be relied upon to close out games and win playoff series’ more so now than in the last three-to-four years. However, as we have seen with the most recent injury to Jake Muzzin, losing one key player put lots of additional strain on the top pairing which would not be sustainable throughout multiple playoff series.

Entering a playoff series having two of the three, Dermott, Liljergren or Holl would be less than ideal- even though they have been adequate up to this point in the year. Potential liability for two-to-three mistakes each night could be costly in a playoff setting where the margin for error becomes far smaller.

This Leafs team has the most potential to make a run in the playoffs than any other team in the era of Auston Matthews, however, given the strength of the Atlantic Division, finishing out of the top spot all but guarantees a tough first-round series.

Credit: Perry Nelson, USA Today

Everything seems to be working at the moment with the powerplay toping the NHL, balanced point production across all four lines, and solid defensive play. The x-factor heading down the stretch will be the goaltending tandem of Campbell and Petr Mrazek and whether or not they will be able to play well when it matters most.

The strengthening of the defense core is certain to go a long way as well, helping limit a barrage of shots on goal the Leafs have struggled with in the playoffs since Frederik Andersen minded the net against the Bruins. Campbell has already proved what he's capable of, among a handful of the league’s best in both save percentage and GAA. The netminder has earned the trust towards the idea that, with the offensive production he has been getting and a much-improved D-core, he can lead the Leafs on a run in the playoffs.

With this in mind, the importance of coming first in the Atlantic Division is more important for the Leafs this season than any of the last four. Drawing a wild-card team opponent allows them a chance to build up some momentum before facing powerhouses in the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers. While the Leafs can certainly go toe-to-toe with these two teams, seeing either one later rather than earlier is far more ideal.

As mentioned, it will be the second line that will be the most important down the stretch and into the playoffs. Both wingers, Kerfoot and Nylander, on that line, are having career years with Tavares in between them providing offensive support. Every year seems like we get closer and closer to a series win and fall short in the series decider. If the Leafs can’t finally complete the task this year, it’d be hard-pressed to find formula that gets them there.

Data from Evolve-Hockey, Capfriendly, and Spotrac

Featured Image: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports