MLB 2024 Award Predictions / by Queens Sports Analytics Organization

Authors: Liam Robertson, Rohan Sankaran

AL MVP: Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge is likely to reel in his second AL MVP award in 3 years as the center fielder had another dominant year at the plate smashing 58 home runs with 144 runs batted in (MLB leader in both). Finishing a lowly third place in batting average prevented him from winning the triple crown which would have been the first since Miguel Cabrera in 2012. Additionally, he led the MLB in most advanced stats with 10.8 bWAR, 218 wRC+, and .476 wOBA. Despite hitting less home runs, many would argue that Judge was statistically better than his 2022 MVP campaign with a higher bWAR, wRC+, and OPS.

Honourable Mentions: Bobby Witt Jr., Juan Soto

Bobby Witt Jr. should be commended on a season that would likely win MVP in many other years, posting a .332 average, 211 hits, and 9.4 bWAR while winning the Gold Glove at shortstop. Juan Soto slugged a career-high 41 home runs winning a Silver Slugger and being a Gold Glove finalist for right field in his first year with the Yankees. While both had amazing years, they should come up short compared to Aaron Judge’s extraordinary season.

NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani

Finishing the regular season with the second highest batting average in the NL and posting an NL-leading OPS and slugging percentage, all while raking in 54 home runs and 130 RBIs (NL leader in both stats), Ohtani is the consensus favourite to bring home the NL MVP. Moreover, Ohtani became the first player in MLB history to post a 50/50 season, and saw career highs in every major stat. On an advanced analytics front, Ohtani was among league leaders in wOBA, and wRC+ indicating immense offensive efficiency. Ohtani has brought home the 2024 Edgar Martinez DH of the year award, and won the NL Hank Aaron award, and we greatly expect him to be securing his 3rd career MVP award.

Honourable mentions: Fransisco Lindor, Ketel Marte

Despite not winning the MVP, Lindor and Marte were nothing short of exceptional this season. Lindor posted an impressive .273 AVG, 33 HR, 91 RBIs, and an impressive 7.0 WAR (3rd in NL). Ketel Marte, while posting strong numbers (.292 AVG, .932 OPS, 6.8 WAR, 36 HR, 95 RBI), only played 132 games this year, which is why we have him ranked 3rd in the NL MVP race.

AL Cy Young: Tarik Skubal

 The young southpaw Tarik Skubal was unknown to many coming into the 2024 MLB season. He far surpassed all expectations posting a 2.39 ERA, 18 Wins, and 228 strikeouts, all of which were leading figures in the AL. Skubal continued his dominance into the postseason where he threw 19 innings with a 2.37 ERA helping propel the underdog Tigers to the ALDS. He will take home the pitching triple crown and no pitcher since the turn of the century has lost the Cy Young after winning the triple crown. He did this with a workhorse level of innings, finishing 5th with 192 IP. Looking at advanced stats, Skubal continued to dominate, finishing with a 2.49 FIP (1st in AL) 6.51 K/BB (2nd in AL), and 30.03 Strikeout Rate (1st in AL).

Honourable Mention: Emmanuel Clase

Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase put together an incredible season that was one of the best reliever seasons in the last decade. Finishing with an MLB-leading 46 saves, 0.65 ERA, and only allowing 5 runs all season, Clase locked down an excellent Guardians bullpen helping lead them to an AL Central division title. Skubal will take home the award as Clase does not have the workload or the strikeouts to compete, however, this was an incredible showing from him

NL Cy Young: Chris Sale

After being traded for Vaughn Grissom in the off-season, talks of Chris Sale even being a reliable MLB starter were brought into question. Sale proceeded to put up an MLB-leading 2.38 ERA through 177.2 IP, 225 Ks (2nd in MLB), 1.01 WHIP (6th in MLB), and winning a league-leading 18 games (.857 W-L%). There is no doubt that Chris Sale won’t take home the NL Cy Young award. With Sale winning the triple crown, Comeback Player of the Year award, being named to his 8th career All-Star team, and landing a spot on the 2024 All-MLB first team, Sale’s incoming Cy Young award is certain. On the advanced stats front, Sale posted a 6.4 fWAR and 2.09 FIP which both led the league as well as a 32.1% strike-out rate.

 Honourable Mentions: Zack Wheeler, Paul Skenes

Zack Wheeler was right behind Sale in ERA, strikeouts, had a lower WHIP (0.92), all in more innings pitched (200). Despite those figures, Sale posted superior stats in nearly all major categories and advanced stats trumped Wheeler's 22.8 more innings pitched, and 0.09 WHIP difference. Despite just making his MLB debut on May 11th, Paul Skenes has solidified himself as a top pitcher in the league. Posting a dominant 1.96 ERA 4.3 fWAR, 0.947 WHIP, and 170 Ks in 130 IP, Skenes proved himself as one of the most efficient and effective MLB starting pitchers. His 130IP will ultimately be the main reason why he finishes 3rd behind Wheeler, and Sale but he has sky-high potential in the future.

AL Manager of the Year: Matt Quatraro

 In a razor-tight AL manager of the year race between Quatraro (-135) and Vogt (-105), we have Quatraro edging out the victory over Vogt on the pretense of Quatraro accomplishing equal excellence to Vogt with a lot less. Despite the Guardians winning 6 more regular season games and winning the AL central over the Royals, no one expected Kansa City to be as dominant as they were. Going into the season the Royals had many overlooked signings. Players like Seth Lugo, Hunter Renfroe, Will Smith, and Michael Wacha, with the 2023 roster that did not have many turning heads had low expectations. Accomplishing an 86-76 record through consistently making excellent bullpen decisions (8th in team bullpen ERA), and executing phenomenal situational navigation, Quatraro reshaped people’s perceptions of the team.

Honourable Mention: Steven Vogt

 On the other hand, Stephen Vogt was nothing short of excellent this year, leading Cleveland to win the AL central, be 3rd in the bullpen ERA, and employ innovative and excellent lineups, situational navigation, and game management. The main difference between Vogt and Quatraro comes down to the rosters, the Cleveland Guardians were the favorite to win the AL Central, and already had cornerstone players in Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan, and Emmanuel Clase to add complementary pieces around. Nonetheless, outbreaks from David Fry, Brayan Rocchio, Andres Gimenez, and leaps from Steven Kwan and Tanner Bibee were very impressive. These breakouts likely occurred due to the effectiveness of Stephen Vogt’s management

NL Manager of the Year: Pat Murphy

 Back in March, the Brewers looked to be ending their run of consistent playoff teams. The departure of many key figures including, longtime manager Craig Counsell, President of Baseball Operations David Stearns, and the trade of former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes had us worried. Against the odds, first-time manager Pat Murphy led the Brewers to a comfortable NL Central Division title. He navigated injuries to significant players including former MVP winner Christian Yelich and reigning Reliever of the Year Devin Williams, and able to deploy the bullpen to perfection, finishing 1st in the NL in bullpen ERA.

Honourable Mention: Carlos Mendoza, Mike Schildt

Carlos Mendoza and Mike Schildt are very similar in their award cases as both were first-year managers on teams that overperformed. After a disappointing 2023, the Mets were expected to enter a retooling phase. They exceeded expectations in part due to the excellent managing of Mendoza. After trading Juan Soto and not making the playoffs in 2023, the Padres had minimal expectations. The strong management of Mike Schildt led them to win 93 games and challenge the Dodgers for the division. While all mentioned managers were impressive, Murphy contributed the most to his team’s winning in our opinion which is why we have him receiving the award.