Author: Luke Heintzman
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If you ever tuned into a golf broadcast, you will often hear discussions of the mythical “strokes gained” of the players in the field. To average observers, golf stats feel easy in theory. There is just your driving distance, fairways hit, Greens in regulation and total putts. However, as time went on, it was clear that these stats lacked a ton of nuance. For example, a lousy putter could have a round with 30 putts if his approach shots were close to the hole. However, a better putt could end up with more putts if their approach game was off that day, and they were having to hit more lag putts than the first player. Strokes gained was an attempt to cut through his lack of nuance and level all parts of a player’s game.
The easiest way to explain strokes gained is through what it was initially designed for. In the 2000s, the PGA Tour started a system called Shotlink. The goal of Shotlink was to track every single shot from every single golf tournament. Colombia professor Mark Brody asked to get his hands on this data to start the strokes gained system, originally for putting. Strokes can be easily visualized, beginning with a simple eight-foot putt. Eight feet is a funny number for pros, as the odds of sinking it are 50/50 and have been for a while. For a pro, that means half the time you’re expected to make the putt and the other half you should two-putt, barring a disaster. So, using basic math, you can visualize an eight-foot putt with an expected stroke value of 1.5. However, in golf, 1.5 strokes is impossible, so you’d either be using one stroke or two strokes, most likely. If you make it in one stroke, it takes you one stroke on a shot, which is expected to take one and a half strokes to do so, you “gained” 0.5 strokes on that shot relative to average. If you missed that shot and took strokes from that spot, then you would have lost that .5 strokes putting instead. So, if in a round you face three eight-footers where you make three and miss one, you would gain a stroke from those four total putts. Putting is simple enough to understand, but it can also apply to the other main parts of the game (driving, approach play, and chipping).
To visualize these other areas, take a par 5. Let’s say on tour, this par 5 has a scoring average of 4.6. Now, a simple way to look at this situation is if you eagle the hole, you’ve gained 1.6 strokes. However, you can do a much more technical analysis of where those strokes were gained. Starting at the tee box, if a player hits their drive 300 yards down the middle, their expected score on the hole changes. From where their ball is now, it’s taken the field 3.3 strokes to get it in the hole. However, since the average score was 4.6 at the tee, the player's expected score changed by 1.3 in one drive, so the strokes gained off the tee is 0.3. Similarly, if they hooked their tee shot into the rough, their expected score would be higher. If it was, say, four strokes from the rough, their expected score only changed by 0.6 in one stroke, so they lost .4 strokes off the tee. Returning to the first tee ball, the same method works for approach shots. Now, on the approach, if the player lands it on the green to a spot where the expected strokes to put it out is two, then his expected score moves by 1.3 in one stroke, so he’s gained 0.3 strokes on approach there. If the putt is made, the player has saved a full stroke on it as they made an expected two-putt in. Now, if you sum it all together, there’s 0.3 saved on the drive, 0.3 saved on the approach, and a full stroke from putting. Those sum together to be a 1.6 stroke gain, which matched the score on the hole, as it took three strokes to complete a hole, expecting 4.6.
Now with this explanation, all of a sudden, you can understand this metric when you’re watching golf on TV. To finish off, I want to talk about how this system can help your own golf game. Strokes gained systems have helped to revolutionize golf strategy by trying to find the best spots to aim and what clubs to use. One of the most significant findings has been to use a driver whenever possible, as the added distance on the club saves lots of strokes, given that it lands in the rough. If you understand your shot disparity, knowing the margin of error you have on holes will help you see when you should be hitting drivers. As with other clubs, you should track how scores look when the ball ends up in a specific spot to get a good sense of where to miss. Pick targets where the disparity will put you in a place with better outlooks for your strokes gained. Serious golfers have databases online that track strokes gained for tournaments to dial in for strategy, but for the average rec player, knowing your course and where scores blow up is a speedy way to lower scores. I hope this story helps to simplify the stroke gained system and improves your watching and playing experience for this beautiful game. Good luck on the course!