Author: Max Mcclean
This Saturday's top-5 showdown between No. 3 Penn State (7-0, 3rd in BIG 10) and No. 4 Ohio State (6-1, 4th in BIG 10) is one of the most highly anticipated matchups of the season. Ohio State is preparing for their second top-5 road matchup of the season, needing a different outcome from their 32-31 loss to the now No. 1 Oregon and Penn State is looking to solidify themselves as one of the best teams in the nation in their first ranked match of the year.
Both teams find themselves in similar positions going into Saturday, Penn State, under head coach James Franklin, has built a reputation of coming up embarrassingly short against ranked opponents. On the other side, Head coach Ryan Day and Ohio State are still seeking that elusive signature win after their week seven loss to the now No. 1 Oregon. With The Buckeyes' explosive offense, led by quarterback Will Howard, and Penn State's stellar start defensively, this week 10 matchup of two top 10’s will surely be a thriller.
Penn State No.3 (7-0, 3rd in BIG 10)
For years now Penn State under James Franklin has been known for beating all the teams they're supposed to then falling on their face against ranked teams when it really matters. Since being named head coach in 2014 Penn State is 1-6 vs. Top 10 Teams At Home, 6-9 vs. Ranked Teams at Home 1-8 vs. Top 5 Teams, and an abysmal 1-9 vs. Ohio State. Penn State is undefeated so far this season but lacks any impressive wins, their only notable win came against a now unranked USC who have since snowballed to a 4-4 record. James Franklin and the Nittany Lions need this win so bad to claim national respect and keep their College Playoff hopes alive.
As mentioned Penn State has had a favourable schedule so far, playing no ranked opponents, until now. To this point Penn State's defense hasn't really been tested, but has been incredible nonetheless. Penn State has allowed an average of 14.3 points per game (7th), 267.7 yards per game (4th), 4.3 yards per play (8th), and a 76.47% red zone scoring rate (21st). Tom Allen’s defense will have to prove why they are one of the best defenses in the nation to this point and stay consistent against a stacked Ohio State offense.
Going into Saturday's matchup there is still the lingering question as to whether Drew Allar will be ready to go for the Nittany Lions. Penn State coach James Franklin said Monday that quarterback Drew Allar's status could be a game-time decision after Allar sustained a left knee injury in their win against Wisconsin last week. Allar ranks 10th nationally with a QBR of 83.6 and top 10 in the BIG10 for touchdowns, completion percentage, and least interceptions. While Sophomore backup Beau Pribula did a great job replacing Allar in the second half of the Wisconsin game completing 11 of 13 passes with a touchdown, Penn State needs Drew Allar to be ready to go for this Top five showdown.
Penn State needs this win against Ohio State, as the pressure on James Franklin rises. The defense must prove that they do belong as one of the best in Nation and can step up in the big game while the offense needs to rally behind whoever starts at quarterback. A win against Ohio State would not only solidify their playoff aspirations, likely locking them into a top 12 spot, but also earn them the national respect that has been elusive under Franklin's tenure.
Ohio State No.4 (6-1, 4th in BIG 10)
Ohio State is gearing up for their second top-5 road matchup of the season, and must come away with a different outcome. Many can remember in week seven when Will Howard scrambled on the last play of the game, draining out the clock, ending with a 32-31 loss to the now No.1 ranked team in the nation. Ohio State played well that day but not well enough, which seems to be a consistent theme. Ryan Day is still missing that “signature” win, after dropping to michigan in week 14 the last three years and an overall 2-6 against top-5 teams the pressure is on for Day and the Buckeyes to secure this win in Happy Valley.
Ohio State’s offense has been completely unbelievable to watch this season as they rank third in all the Power Four conferences with 40.4 PPG. Will Howard has had an outstanding season aside from that one blip against Oregon, throwing for 1,795 yards, 17 touchdowns, and only five interceptions. A Lot of this success must be attributed to ability in getting the ball to wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka, Smith has been able to rack up 520 yards for six touchdowns while Egbuka has not been far behind with 449 yards and four touchdowns. Ohio State will surely be looking to find their two talented receivers and test this unproven Penn State defense.
Ohio State's running back position is in an interesting place, once touted as the best running back room in the nation, The Buckeyes rushing attack has stalled out in recent weeks. Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson have been able to compliment eachother terrifically, Judkins leads the team with 520 rushing yards and Henderson not far behind with 449 and the two have been able to combine for 10 touchdowns in seven games to this point. Impressive, yes, but in their last two games Judkins and Henderson have combined for a total of 164 yards and one touchdown. Penn State gave up 189 yards on the ground in their biggest game against USC earlier this year and the Buckeyes rushing attack must show some flashes of old as they try to exploit the Nittany Lions on the ground.
As Ohio State heads into this critical week 10 matchup, the team faces immense pressure to avoid their second loss of the year, secure a signature win, and bolster their playoff chances. A victory in Happy Valley would not only validate their season but also alleviate the growing pressure on Ryan Day to deliver in high-stakes games.
Who Has The Edge?
As Penn State faces off against Ohio State, the stakes couldn't be higher for both teams. For the Nittany Lions, this game is a chance to prove that they belong in the conversation with College Football’s elite, regardless of quarterback Drew Allar's availability. Ohio State, meanwhile, enters this critical matchup in a similar situation, a second loss Saturday would leave little to no room for error the rest of the season for The Buckeyes
The Buckeyes' potent offense, driven by Howard and bolstered by standout receivers Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka, will test Penn State's defense. The running game, led by Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, must also regain their footing to exploit the Nittany Lions on the ground.
Given Ohio State's offensive firepower and their need to win this game, I have Ohio State 31, Penn State 27 in a classic in Happy Valley. The Buckeyes' ability to execute in key moments and their balanced attack will likely tip the scales in their favor, securing a crucial win.