Author: Thomas Carnie

Note that all images used are sourced from mlb.com, unless otherwise noted.

Introduction

This project examines historical data to predict which team is most likely to win the next 10 World Series’. Using data from past seasons and factoring in variables like team age, prospect depth, and market size, I created a model to project future performance. This approach allows the user to estimate how competitive each team will be over the next decade.

How were the Odds Calculated?

Using Excell, data was inputted for each of the following categories: 2023 Rank, 2024 Rank, Farm system ranking (from the MLB website [1]), Off – Season Addition Modifier (Rating given from based on free agent spend/trades this offseason), Age Modifier (Based on average team age), and Team Net Spend Modifier (Rating given from based on average net free agent spend based on previous 3 seasons).

The first year (2025) was calculated using the following algorithm:

2025 𝑅𝑎𝑛𝑘 = (65% ∗ 2024 𝑅𝑎𝑛𝑘) + (25% ∗ 2023 𝑅𝑎𝑛𝑘) + (10% ∗ 𝐹𝑎𝑟𝑚 𝑆𝑦𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑚 𝑅𝑎𝑛𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔) + (1)

𝑂𝑓𝑓 − 𝑆𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑜𝑛 𝐴𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑀𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑒𝑟 + 𝐴𝑔𝑒 𝑀𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑒𝑟

Predicting the Next Ten World Series Winners

Using a computer which took each teams odds and generated a winner, here are the next 10 World Series Winners:

2025:

Top 3 Odds:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (6.4%)

2. Philadelphia Phillies (5.4%)

3. Milwaukee Brewers (5.3%)

Winner: Seattle Mariners (3.7%)

2026:

Top 3 Odds:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (5.9%)

2. Arizona Diamondbacks (5.7%)

3. Cleveland Guardians (5.6%)

Winner: Cincinnati Reds (2.4%)

Biggest Jump: Washington Nationals (2.2% to 3.2%) Biggest Downgrade: Chicago Cubs (3.1% to 2%)

2027:

Top 3 Odds:

1. Arizona Diamondbacks (6.2%)

2. Cleveland Guardians (6.2%)

3. Los Angeles Dodgers (5.6%)

Winner: Minnesota Twins (5.0%)

Biggest Jump: Washington Nationals (3.2% to 3.9%) Biggest Downgrade: Chicago Cubs (2% to 1.2%)

2028:

Top 3 Odds:

1. Arizona Diamondbacks (6.6%)

2. Cleveland Guardians (6.5%)

3. Tampa Bay Rays (5.7%)

Winner: Milwaukee Brewers (4.9%)

Biggest Jump: San Franscisco Giants (3.3% to 3.7%) Biggest Downgrade: Texas Rangers (0.9% to 0.5%)

2029:

Top 3 Odds:

1. Arizona Diamondbacks (6.8%)

2. Cleveland Guardians (6.5%)

3. Los Angeles Dodgers (5.8%)

Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks (6.8%)

Biggest Jump: Boston Red Sox (3.3% to 3.7%)

Biggest Downgrade: Houston Astros (0.6% to 0.3%)

Due to the unpredictable nature of the MLB and the ever-changing composition of teams, the years 2030 to 2035 used the following equation to calculate each team’s odds, using 2030 as an example:

2030 𝑅𝑎𝑛𝑘 = 2029𝑅𝑎𝑛𝑘 + 𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝑆𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑 𝑀𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑒𝑟

2030:

Winner: Tampa Bay Rays 2031:

Winner: Detroit Tigers 2032:

Winner: Tampa Bay Rays 2033:

Winner: Toronto Blue Jays 2034:

Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers

Trends

While this analysis isn't perfect, it provides a strong estimate of how teams may perform in the future. Teams with strong farm systems and younger rosters excelled in this projection, with clubs like the Guardians, Rays and Diamondbacks seeing their chances significantly improve over the first five years.

On the other hand, the White Sox, Rockies, and A’s struggled throughout the simulation, consistently ranking near the bottom over the full ten-year span. Their poor outlook was largely driven by weak free-agent spending, aging rosters, and underperforming farm systems.

Meanwhile, veteran-heavy teams in large markets, such as the Dodgers and Yankees, maintained relatively stable odds year after year due to their deep, talent-loaded rosters. The teams that fared the best and remained consistently near the top of the rankings had a well-balanced mix of spending, youth, and prospect depth, allowing for sustained success over time.