Week 13 Game of the Week: Indiana vs Ohio State / by Queens Sports Analytics Organization

Author: Max McClean

Indiana’s Cinderella Story Faces Its Toughest Test Yet

With the College Football Playoff starting to take shape, Week 13 of the season will see three games between ranked opponents. No. 5 Indiana will meet No. 2 Ohio State in another top-five Big Ten showdown involving the Buckeyes. Ohio State enters as a double-digit favourite (-13.5) begging the question, can Indiana coach Curt Cignetti keep this unexpected season alive and reverse the curse?

Indiana announced Saturday it agreed to a new eight-year contract with Cignetti, extending through the 2032 season. With his new contract in hand, Cignetti will have added motivation to snap Indiana's 28-game losing streak to the Buckeyes. This matchup promises to be a defensive showdown, with Ohio State's defence allowing just 9.3 points per game over the last four weeks and the Hoosiers' conceding only 11.3 points per game in the same stretch. With Ohio State already showing one loss on their record this year, another could push them way down or even outside the 12-team College Football Playoff. The Hoosiers on the other hand are facing a ranked team for the first time this season, making the stakes as high as ever in the BIG10 faceoff.

Indiana: (11-0, Second in BIG 10)

It's been a Cinderella story for this Indiana program, which had no expectations at the start of the season. In their 126-year history, they have made just 13 bowl games and have never finished with double-digit victories. Critics note that despite its 10-0 record, Indiana has faced the 106th hardest schedule in all of FBS, the easiest of any team in the AP Top 25. Indiana has not been tested much, their most notable win came against Nebraska or perhaps Michigan, but this game against Ohio State will be their most true test yet.

Kurtis Rourke, an Oakville Ontario native has been a large part of the Hoosiers' success this season. Rourke has boasted an impressive 71.8% completion rate, 2,410 passing yards, and 21 touchdowns, good enough to land in the top five in the BIG10, behind notable names like Dillon Gabriel, Drew Allar, and Will Howard. The fifth-year transfer from Ohio University has to step up to the test against mighty Ohio State. The last time Rourke played against a ranked opponent was on September 10th, 2022, when Ohio University faced Penn State. In that game, Rourke completed 14 of 30 passes for 119 yards in a 46-10 loss. The Hoosiers will need a far better performance from Rourke this Saturday if they want to take down the No.2 team in the nation.

Justice Ellison, a transfer from Wake Forest and Ty Son Lawton, from JMU, have made significant impacts since joining the Hoosiers. Ellison has totalled 120 carries for 686 yards and 9 touchdowns, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Lawton, meanwhile, has contributed 106 carries for 508 yards and 9 touchdowns, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. These transfers have proven crucial to the Hoosiers' success. This game against Ohio State is why they are on the team, to play in important games like this.

As Indiana prepares to face Ohio State, the stakes are incredibly high. Rourke faces mounting pressure to perform under the spotlight and deliver when it matters most. Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton, both transfer stars, will need to elevate their game to another level. The Hoosiers have defied expectations so far, but will this be the moment they finally meet their match?

 

Ohio State: (9-1, Third in BIG10)

Ohio State is preparing for their third top-5 matchup of the season. After a heart-wrenching 32-31 loss to Oregon in week seven, they bounced back with a 20-13 win over Penn State in their second top-5 battle. Now as they face Indiana, they’ll look to continue their momentum despite injuries and shifting lineup dynamics.

Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson have been pivotal to Ohio State’s rushing attack, with Judkins totalling 723 yards and 13 touchdowns on 121 carries, while Henderson has 662 yards and 14 touchdowns on 89 carries. After a slow stretch in weeks 9 and 10, they’ve regained their form. Meanwhile, Indiana’s defence has been strong, conceding only 11.3 points per game over the last four weeks. This is all setting the stage for an intriguing matchup between Ohio State's run game and the Hoosiers' defence.

The Ohio State offensive line took another blow on Tuesday when starting center Seth McLaughlin tore his Achilles tendon in practice, ending his season. This comes after left tackle Josh Simmons was lost for the year due to a knee injury and his replacement, Zen Michalski, also went down with an injury. The Buckeyes have made multiple shifts to compensate, raising questions about the team's lineups as they prepare for this critical matchup.

With the offensive line facing significant reshuffling and key injuries, Ohio State enters this matchup with questions up front. The rushing attack, which had been a strong point earlier in the season, will need to rise to the occasion without Seth McLaughlin. The Buckeyes are likely a better team than Indiana, but will they be able to maintain their momentum, and adjust to the real challenge in overcoming these obstacles?

Canadian Spotlight

Kurtis Rourke, an Oakville, Ontario native, has emerged as one of the top quarterbacks in college football, especially after transferring to Indiana for the 2024 season. Under the leadership of Coach Curt Cignetti, Rourke helped lead Indiana to a historic 10-win season, a program first.

His journey wasn't always smooth, as his family recognized early on the talent both Kurtis and his older brother Nathan had, prompting them to move to Alabama for high school. There,  Kurtis struggled with intense training and found himself buried on the depth chart with limited playing time.

After moving back to Canada and joining Holy Trinity High School in Kanata, Kurtis experienced significant growth, both physically and as a player, which boosted his confidence and performance. This period marked a turning point, where he began to develop the skills that would shape his future in college football.

Initially overlooked by major programs due to his Canadian background, Kurtis’ connection to his older brother Nathan, who had a stronger college presence, opened doors at Ohio University. Kurtis’ time in Ohio helped refine his abilities, eventually leading to his successful career at Indiana. These early challenges shaped his resilience, allowing him to flourish and become a standout in the Big Ten.

The Stakes

The stakes couldn't be higher for both teams in this Week 13 matchup. Ohio State enters the game as a heavy favourite but faces questions regarding its banged-up offensive line, while Indiana, led by the resilient Kurtis Rourke, will be looking to prove that their undefeated record is no fluke. At the end of the day, I think there is simply too much against the Hoosiers when they travel to the Horseshoe this weekend,

Prediction: Ohio State 33, Indiana 10