NHL Western Canada 2018-19 Season Recap

By Constantine Maragos

With the conclusion of the 2018-19 NHL season, the Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks are facing the year-end media earlier than they’d like. Both teams have young superstars taking the league by storm, however glaring issues in each team holds them back from taking the next step. In this article, we’ll look into each of Edmonton and Vancouver’s seasons and look to see where they excelled, and where they need to improve.

Edmonton Oilers (35-38-9), 7th in Pacific Division

The Edmonton Oilers have caught themselves in another lacklustre season after their second round, seven-game series against the Anaheim Ducks two years ago. This year has been especially disappointing for the team. The Oilers finished with 35 wins and 79 points, good for 7th in a relatively weak Pacific Division, and 25th overall in the NHL. There is a multitude of factors one could blame this season’s finish for, including asset mismanagement and an underperforming roster.

Former Oilers General Manager Peter Chiarelli made a number of questionable moves in his tenure with the team that we do not need to harp on more than they already have. However, in the scope of this Chiarelli made certain moves which left the Oilers in the same position, or worse. To start, roughly one month into the season, the Oilers swapped Ryan Strome for New York Rangers forward Ryan Spooner. After only scoring 2 points in his first 18 games, it made sense at the time to try and shake things up with the swap. However, in doing so the Oilers acquired a player who’s struggles went beyond the offensive end. Spooner’s subpar defensive ability has been well documented and has led to his movement around the league. On the other hand, with a decreased defensive usage with the Rangers, Strome has been able to score at a significantly higher level. Spooner did not manage to score any more than he did in New York. Shortly after Chiarelli’s release, the new Oilers regime sent Spooner to the Canucks for Sam Gagner, who has been itching for NHL time since being stuck with the AHL Marlies all season. Gagner has been a step up from what Spooner and Strome were for the Oilers, recording 10 points in 25 games for the team.

The other two moves Chiarelli made this season involved shipping off forward Drake Caggiula, Jason Garrison, & a 2019 3rd round pick in a pair of trades to acquire defensemen Brandon Manning from the Blackhawks and Alex Petrovic (0-1-1, -7, 9GP) from the Panthers (both trades happened on December 30th). Again, these trades seem to have been poor asset management. Brandon Manning played a total of 12 pointless games for the Oilers before he was assigned to AHL Bakersfield. Alex Petrovic did not fare well either, playing only nine games, although he did miss time due to injury. As an impending UFA Petrovic did not make much of a case to be re-signed. Through his nine games with the team, Petrovic recorded only 1 assist, and registered a -7 plus/minus. Petrovic also achieved a -10.1% relative xGoals, as well as sitting at an On-Ice Shot Attempts Against/60 of 62.07. Petrovic served as a healthy scratch from February 16th until the end of the season. In turn, Drake Caggiula (5-7-12, +3, 26GP) stepped up his play with the Blackhawks. Although Caggiula has not been anything near a revelation, the primary scrutiny surrounding these moves is the lack of asset management and desperation shown by management. Of course, such moves are not the primary factor the Oilers’ demise but can be looked at as a sample size of the countless missteps that have occurred over the years. With many needs to address this season, the incoming management regime is left with a slim talent pool, and many needs to address this offseason.

Apart from the number of media storylines that shadow the organization, Leon Draisaitl enjoyed a career year. There was no shortage of critics regarding the huge contract he signed in 2017. Draisaitl’s 8-year/$66 million contract accounted for 11.33% of the Oilers cap hit at the time (and caused plenty of headaches among Leafs fans earlier this year), however, he has certainly begun to live up to that number, if not already. Draisaitl finished the year with 51 goals and 105 points, placing him 1 goal behind Alex Ovechkin for the Rocket Richard trophy and 4th overall in scoring. Draisaitl was also tasked with a heavy workload throughout the season, averaging 22:35 in ice time, second only behind teammate Connor McDavid among forwards. This statistic alone should measure the importance of these two players to the Oilers roster.

The most intriguing storyline this season was the persistent speculation surrounding 20-year old forward Jesse Puljujarvi. Puljujarvi never solidified himself into the Oilers lineup. To summarize Puljujarvi’s struggles this season, agent Markus Lehto has stated that it “may be beneficial [for Puljujarvi] to go somewhere else.” With that being said, assessing Puljujarvi’s current value is tough, as he is only 20, and a fresh start is what he may need. With only 4 goals and 9 points through 46 games, Puljujarvi’ season ended on February 15th due to a hip injury, which he underwent surgery for on March 4th. However, through such low production and inconsistent play Puljujarvi has not shown that he is capable of becoming a full-time NHL player. But as he is so young, the Oilers need to assess whether or not it is worth keeping someone who has shown flairs of skill or cut their losses and move forward with other assets. It is also worth mentioning that Edmonton has set a high price for Puljujarvi at a 1st, a prospect, and another asset (per Darren Dreger). It remains to be seen how the situation will play out, but the most sensible trade scenario, given Puljujarvi’s play and trending value, would be to try and swap him for another young player in a similar situation.

Looking forward, the Oilers have many needs to address, whether it be finding depth on the wing or stability on defense. The only consistency that lies within the organization is their two stars in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl who seem to score no matter the circumstance. If the Oilers want to compete soon, they will need a number of smart acquisitions astute player development to improve their fortunes next year.

Photo credited to Anne-Marie Sorvin — USA TODAY

Vancouver Canucks (35-36-11), 5th in Pacific Division

Despite playing at around .500 for the entire season, the Canucks found themselves playing some meaningful games up until near the end of the season. The Canucks finished with 35 wins and 81 points, placing them 5th in the Pacific Division and 23rd in the NHL. However, without the outstanding second-half of Jacob Markstrom, the emergence of young superstar Elias Pettersson, and the reliable defensive play of centre Bo Horvat, the Canucks would be in a much lower place in the standings.

Through 60 starts this season, Jacob Markstrom posted a 28-23-9 record. The Canucks starter also contributed 34 Quality starts on the season, as well as an 11.1-point share, tied for 7th in the league. However, his performance in the second half of the season was a catalyst in keeping the Canucks near the playoff conversation this season. Since December 7th, Markstrom posted 19 wins at a 0.921 SV%, paired with his one shutout for the season. Night in and night out, Markstrom provided the Canucks with an opportunity to win. One of his most notable performances of the season was his 44-save outing in February against the fully-loaded Calgary Flames. The Flames outshot the Canucks 34-13 in the second and third period, but Markstrom held his ground throughout and led the team to a shootout victory. The progress Markstrom has made this year gives the Canucks needed stability in net throughout the rest of their rebuild, as rookie netminder Thatcher Demko still needs time to develop into a full-time pro, and prospect Mike DiPietro is still multiple years away from the Canucks crease. Going into next season, if Markstrom is able to build off his play this season, the Canucks could be playing meaningful games in spring quicker than we’d expect.

Another popular storyline is Elias Pettersson’s record-breaking season. The Swedish rookie hit the ground running at the beginning of the 2018-19 campaign, scoring in his debut, and subsequently scoring 10 points in 10 games through the month of October. Pettersson finished the season with 31 goals and 66 points, leading not only the Canucks but the entire rookie class in scoring by a considerable margin. Pettersson set a multitude of records through his impressive feats this season, most notably setting the record for most points by a Canucks rookie. In addition, the Pettersson effect was alive and well throughout the season. Petterson ranked third in relative Corsi at 4.3%, only behind linemates Brock Boeser and Josh Leivo no less. Despite complaints regarding his size (or lack thereof) Pettersson’s ability this year to protect and handle the puck in such a skilled manner has reinvigorated the Canucks offense. The insertion of Pettersson into the Canucks lineup has allowed for a seamless transition into a new identity for such a young core and gives great hope for the future. The next step in Pettersson’s career is his forthcoming Calder trophy win. However, a slow finish to the season and explosive entrance into the league by 25-year old rookie Jordan Binnington has created a bit of a conversation. Nonetheless, expect Pettersson to be named rookie of the year, and improvement next year on his already spectacular game.

As injuries seem to plague the Canucks year after year, head coach Travis Green leaned on centre Bo Horvat tremendously throughout various stretches of the season. Injuries to bottom-six centres Brandon Sutter and Jay Beagle at the beginning of the year led to a tremendous defensive load for Horvat to manage. Tasked with shutting down the top opposition night in and night out, while also looked at to still produce, Bo Horvat showed how important he is to the Canucks roster. Horvat lined up for 2018 faceoffs on the year which is more than any other player in the NHL. Additionally, 38.6% (779) of those draws came in the defensive zone. Horvat finished the year with a 53.7% success rate on draws. Along with the heavy defensive burden, Horvat had a career year offensively, recording career highs in goals, assists, and points (27-34-61, 82GP). As Horvat continues to develop as a 200-foot player, he has still yet to reach his full potential.

The biggest weakness that the Canucks have is their struggle on defense. Throughout the season, it was apparent that veteran Alex Edler was the backbone of their defense core and was relied on more than ever to perform. Edler logged an average TOI of 24:34, ranking him 10th in the NHL. Edler also missed extensive time due to injury, playing only 56 games on the year. The damage was tough to mitigate for the Canucks fdefense, as veteran Chris Tanev also missed a comparable amount of games this year (27). While this is not an unknown phenomenon, especially for Tanev, the absence of the veteran duo was missed more than ever. Despite the magnitude of games lost to injury, Edler was still able to produce impressive numbers, posting 10 goals and 34 points on the year. This was Edler’s 3rd time scoring 10 goals or more in a season, and the first time since 2011-12. As an impending free agent, and well-documented for his admiration of the city he’s called home his entire career, expect Edler to be back next season. As for the rest of the Canucks defense, there is still work to be done. Although defensemen Ben Hutton and Troy Stecher made good progress this year, there were countless occasions where they were anchored by defense partners such as Erik Gudbranson and Derrick Pouliot.  Before being traded, defenseman Erik Gudbranson was one of the worst possession defenders in the NHL. At the time of his trade, Gudbranson led the Canucks in shot attempts against per 60 with 66.64, while also at the bottom of the league in plus-minus at a -27. In addition, defenseman Derrick Pouliot looked lost at times when out on the ice. The lack of physicality from both defensemen led to long, drawn-out shifts in the defensive zone and countless turnovers on the breakout. Luckily, with the arrival of Quinn Hughes and potentially new personnel in the offseason, ice time on the back end will not be taken for granted, and play will improve.

Looking forward, the Canucks have a strong young core already in the NHL and will add another top prospect with the #10 pick at the NHL Draft in Vancouver. Also look for  Bo Horvat to take another step, where presumably he will be named team captain, a role that’s been he’s been groomed for ever since he came into the league. In addition, the developing chemistry between Brock Boeser and Elias Pettersson will only become stronger, and they have the potential to become one of the top duos in the NHL. Quinn Hughes’ NHL audition impressed many and should certainly excite fans going into his rookie season. His confidence with the puck on his stick will only increase as he acquires more NHL experience. Also, if the likes of Jake Virtanen, Josh Leivo, and Troy Stecher are able to build on their 2018-19 campaigns, they will develop into solid role players for the foreseeable future. With that being said, there is still a ways to go for the Vancouver Canucks, but there is a bright future ahead of them.

Analysis: How five elite scorers get their goals

By Owen Kewell

There’s something beautiful about scoring a goal.

Goals are the building blocks that make up hockey success, both on the individual and team level. They are a single moment in time, a culmination of a series of plays that ends with one team’s attack successfully defeating the other’s defense.

Teams are forever searching to add goals to their lineup, and for good reason. Goals win games, playoff series and, eventually, championships.

Goal-scoring is a repeatable talent, and while certain NHLers are far better at it than others, each player does it their own way. Each scorer exhibits unique tendencies of shot type selection and shot location.

Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, Connor McDavid, Nikita Kucherov, and Patrik Laine are five of the best scorers in the game. Of the 10 goal leaders for the 2017-18 season, these five players possess the highest career goals per game rates. They are the elite of the elite when it comes to putting the puck into NHL nets.

I wanted to explore how they each do it differently.

The above visualization separates by shot type to show how each player scored their goals in the 2017-18 season. Overall, the most popular shot type was wrist shot, followed by snap shot, slap shot, and finally backhand.

It should be noted that the ‘AVG (10+ G Forwards)’ represents a weighted average of the relevant shot rate among all forwards who scored 10 or more goals, weighted by the number of goals that they scored. It’s a way to quantify ‘normal’ rates for the league’s goal scoring forwards.

Let’s take a more detailed look at each of these five players.

Alex Ovechkin

It’s no secret that Alex Ovechkin is really good at scoring goals. Since breaking into the league, he’s won the scoring title 7 times and no one else has won it more than twice. Sitting at 607 career goals, Ovi continues to propel himself further up the list of all-time greats. His 0.605 goals per game ranks first league-wide, beating out all other forwards by at least 0.08 G/GP.

Ovechkin loves slap shots, which should come as no surprise to anyone who’s watched Washington’s power play operate. His 17 slap shot goals were an uncontested 1st league-wide, with Steven Stamkos being the only other forward to score more than 7. Ovechkin’s slap shot is so powerful that it beats goalies clean even whey they know it’s coming, meaning that it can be unleashed without needing to be disguised.

Equally noteworthy, Ovechkin scored just 31% of his goals by wrist shot, which represents the lowest rate among all 32 players who scored 30+ goals.

Heat Map courtesy of Micah Blake McCurdy's website HockeyViz (https://hockeyviz.com)

The red areas in the above heat map show where Ovechkin shoots more frequently than the rest of the league. Ovechkin makes an absolute killing at the top of the left faceoff circle, often referred to as the ‘Ovi Spot’. This area lines up with Ovechkin’s average shot distance of 32.3 feet, which ranked in the 80th percentile among the league’s forwards.

Although it’s not reflected in the heat map, much of Ovechkin’s damage is done with the man advantage playing the left point. Of his 49 goals, 17 were scored on the power play, which ranked 2nd only behind a player further down this list. His remaining 32 were scored at even-strength, which again ranked 2nd in the league. Elite scoring across both special teams and even-strength situations throughout his career has propelled Ovechkin to the status of the league’s premier goal scorer.

Evgeni Malkin

Despite being the second-best player on his team, Malkin has put together the resume of an elite goal scorer. He’s scored 75 goals in 140 games over the past two seasons, which converts to 44 goals over an 82-game season. His career goals per game of 0.472 ranks 6th among active forwards, placing him in elite company.

What makes Malkin dangerous is his offensive versatility; he can score from anywhere on the ice. Equal parts power and precision, Malkin possesses a variety of weapons. His snap shot goal rate clocks in at roughly double the league average (his 11 snap shot goals ranked 4th), but his middle-of-the-pack rates for wrist shots, slap shots and backhands speak to his balanced toolkit. Malkin does not rely on a single shot type to score goals, meaning that defenders must respect all shot types that Malkin credibly threatens. 

Heat Map courtesy of Micah Blake McCurdy's website HockeyViz (https://hockeyviz.com)

Did I mention that Malkin can score from anywhere? The sea of red is the beauty of Evgeni Malkin. He’s one of the most complete offensive players in the league. In addition to his heavy shot, his slick puck-handling ability and power forward frame allow him to generate shots and scoring chances at elite rates in the low slot area. His shot distance ranked just inside the upper third league-wide, influenced both by his crease-area chances and his shot activity in the high slot.

Malkin joins Ovechkin as the only two players in the league to finish top-10 in both even-strength goals and power play goals. He scored 28 times at evens, ranking 7th, and 14 times with the man advantage, ranking 6th. Malkin is one of the game’s most dangerous players in the offensive zone, and his goal scoring abilities rank among the NHL’s elite.

Connor McDavid

At this point, not much more needs to be said about Connor McDavid’s offensive game. His 108 points were enough for a second consecutive Art Ross (but not Hart) Trophy. He’s the been the league’s best forward for the last two years, and he’s only 21 years old.

But is he a goal scorer? While it’s true that McDavid has been viewed more as a set-up man than a finisher thus far in his young career, in 2017-18 we saw a transformation in McDavid’s offensive role. Compared to the year prior, McDavid scored 11 more goals and took 23 more shots. He became more of a trigger man, electing to attempt shots more often instead of looking to pass. This development calls to mind a young Sidney Crosby, who recorded seasons of 70 and 84 assists before breaking out for 51 goals in 2009-10.

McDavid prefers to score goals with his wrist shot. His 25 wrist shot goals ranked 3rd league-wide behind only Nathan MacKinnon and Eric Staal, while his rate of 61% ranked 9th among the 32 players who scored 30+ goals. He hardly ever takes slap shots, registering just 7 of these shots during the entire season, of which just 1 beat the goalie. Rather than rely on strength to generate power, McDavid creates offense thanks to generational skating and elite-level hands. He’s able to create and navigate space better than anyone else on the planet and puts himself into positions where a quick and accurate wrist shot is more than enough to beat the goalie.

Heat Map courtesy of Micah Blake McCurdy's website HockeyViz (https://hockeyviz.com)

McDavid has figured out hockey’s (not-so) secret formula: if you get close to the net, you’re more likely to score. He's extremely effective at using his speed, hands, and vision to attack the most dangerous area of the ice. McDavid’s sub-20’ average shot distance is a testament to his elite ability to generate scoring chances from the crease and low slot area.

McDavid’s special teams split is intriguing. His 35 even-strength goals ranked first in the entire NHL, but his 5 power play goals tied him for 96th among forwards. This latter can be explained both by Edmonton’s league-worst power play and also McDavid’s primary role as a puck distributor on the top unit. If Edmonton’s power play improves, which is likely given regression to the mean, McDavid’s special teams goal-scoring could very well take a step forward and supplement his elite even-strength scoring totals. He is already the game’s best forward and he poses a legitimate threat to become the game’s best scorer sooner rather than later.

Nikita Kucherov

A late 2nd round pick, Nikita Kucherov has emerged from relative anonymity to become one of the league’s most dangerous forwards. His 79 goals over the past two seasons place 3rd league-wide, and he was one of just three players to break 100 points in 2017-18.

While Kucherov’s absurdly accurate wrist shot remains his primary weapon (4th in wrist shot goals with 24), he is equally dangerous on the backhand. He scored 8 times (21% of all goals) on his backhand, ranking 2nd among 30+ goal scorers to Brad Marchand in both raw total and rate. Kucherov’s ability to score using wrist shots and backhands is all the more impressive considering that he shoots from further away than 93% of other forwards. He can be successful from this range without relying on the power of slap and snap shots due to his innate ability to find and exploit tiny gaps that goaltenders leave open. His shots are precise and accurate, and he excels at finding any available daylight.

Heat Map courtesy of Micah Blake McCurdy's website HockeyViz (https://hockeyviz.com)

An incredibly versatile player, Nikita Kucherov generates shots at elite rates all over the mid and high-slot. Rather than favour a specific shooting location, he elects to test the goalie from all areas of the offensive zone. This makes Kucherov unpredictable, which helps explain why his quick-release wrist shot and backhand are so devastating. He doesn’t shoot much from the crease area, but driving the net really isn’t part of how he creates offense.

Kucherov was more of a goal-scorer at even-strength than on the power play in 2017-18. He recorded 31 ES goals, one of just four players to crack 30, compared with 8 on the man advantage. He played more of a set-up role on Tampa Bay’s 3rd-ranked power play, registering 28 assists as he regularly sent cross-ice passes to Steven Stamkos (15 PP goals). Kucherov’s outstanding season cemented his status as one of the most dangerous goal scorers in the NHL, and at the prime age of 25 he’s as good a bet as any to repeat his offensive dominance next season.

Patrik Laine

At just 20 years old, Patrik Laine is already among the game’s premier snipers. His 44 goals ranked 2nd league-wide in 2017-18, fueling the Jets to their franchise-best season. Laine’s biggest asset is his shot, which may very well be the best in the league. Among current NHLers with 50+ career goals, Patrik Laine’s career shooting percentage of 18.0% ranks 2nd behind only Paul Byron. Byron, meanwhile, had an average shot distance of 19.3 feet in 2017-18, least of all eligible forwards, while Laine’s average shot came from 36.1 feet, ranking in the 97th percentile. The kid can shoot the puck.

Laine’s weapon of choice is his snap shot, which he routinely uses to one-time pucks into the back of the net. His quick release and accurate shot placement resulted in 14 snap shot goals in 2017-18, which tied for the league lead with Phil Kessel. He also is a fan of the slap shot, with his 6 slap shot goals placing him in a tie for 4th among all forwards.

Heat Map courtesy of Micah Blake McCurdy's website HockeyViz (https://hockeyviz.com)

Here we see Laine’s favourite shooting locations. A right-handed shot, Laine loves to one-time pucks from the high slot. The fact that he’s able to beat the goalie so consistently from so far away speaks to his talent as a shooter. Like Ovechkin, Laine’s shooting locations lack variety, but he’s so good from his spots that goalies have difficulty stopping the shot even if they can anticipate that it’s coming.

The triggerman for the Jets’ 5th-ranked power play, Laine lead all NHLers with 20 power play goals in 2017-18. He would routinely patrol the space between the left half-wall and left point, making himself open to cross-seam passes and one-timing his quick snapshot on net. His 24 even-strength goals tied for 20th in the league, so he’s no slouch at 5-on-5 scoring either.

Since breaking into the league, Laine has used his generational shot to pick apart opposing goalies. The odds-on favourite to inherit Ovechkin’s throne as best goal-scorer is the league, the sky’s the limit for a kid who potted 44 goals in just his second season in the league.

Conclusion

So there we have it; the modus operandi of five of the game’s elite. While Ovechkin, Malkin, McDavid, Kucherov, and Laine possess a shared gift for putting the puck in the net, they achieve it with vastly different sets of techniques, skills, and strategies. There is no uniform way to score a goal across the league, but all that matters is that it goes in.

With goals representing the currency of the NHL, goal-scorers are among the most valuable assets out there. Scoring goals wins you games, playoff series, and, as 32-year old Alex Ovechkin and 31-year-old Evgeni Malkin know, Stanley Cup championships. Kucherov (25), McDavid (21), and Laine (20) have not yet won hockey’s ultimate prize but given their relative youth and their otherworldly ability to put the puck in the net, they might not be far away.

Data courtesy of Hockey Abstract (http://hockeyabstract.com/testimonials), Natural Stat Trick (https://naturalstattrick.com), and NHL.com (https://nhl.com)

Shot heat maps courtesy of Micah Blake McCurdy’s wonderful visualization website HockeyViz (https://hockeyviz.com)

Cover photo credited to NHL.com