How Liverpool’s run of form has affected the Premier League standings: A case study in Expected Goals

Liverpool’s Premier League unbeaten streak of over a year has been incredible. Currently sitting atop the table with 73 of a possible 75 points, Liverpool is on pace to set a record-breaking total of 110 points, 10 more than City’s record of 100 from 2 years ago… What is the probability that Liverpool actually deserves to be where they are in the table?