Monday May 13, 2013:
The city of Toronto was electric. Competing in the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time in 12 seasons, the Toronto Maple Leafs inched their way to game 7 against the heavily favoured Boston Bruins. Continuing an improbable run led by Phil Kessel, Nazem Kadri, James Van Riemsdyk, Cody Franson, Dion Phaneuf, and James Reimer.
I was with a dozen of my closest friends, sitting at the head of the table in a Shoeless Joe’s party room. Every detail of that night is vivid in my mind — for what was about to come can only be described as demoralizing. The Leafs held a 3 goal lead with less than 11 minutes to go in regulation time.
The lead evaporated. The Bruins’ eventual overtime winner became an inevitability.
Without a word, I immediately got up from my seat and stormed out of the bar. I glanced over at the patrons — and to this day, I have never seen so many people simultaneously unsure how to react.
Toronto is a dramatically different team. Now led by their sophomore phenom Auston Matthews, the Leafs look for revenge against the team that crushed the hopes of an entire fanbase five years ago.
Taking an analytics-focused view, let’s see how Toronto and Boston compare now.
All data used is courtesy of Corsica and NaturalStatTrick
The Leafs are superior to the Bruins in every major offensive category. Toronto is one of the highest paced teams in the league, relying on their high-end offensive talent to best opponents. Boston had a similarly strong offensive season, but failed to generate a significant amount of high danger scoring chances per 60 minutes of play. This can likely be attributed to the Bruins\’ slower paced style of play.
The visuals above show the league rank of each forward in 5v5 primary points per 60 minutes. This metric is highly repeatable year over year, and gives a somewhat accurate depiction of a player’s offensive prowess. However, numbers are somewhat skewed by factors such as the quality of their linemates and the quality of competition faced.
The first thing that stands out about the Leafs’ chart is Auston Matthews. He ranks first league wide in 5v5 P1/60. Fans can expect him to be a constant threat, and the biggest ‘X-factor’ player in the series. Boston is led by what is likely the league’s most dominant first line. It is one of the only lines that is capable of dominating the overpowering combination of Auston Matthews and William Nylander.
Toronto is incredible at generating high danger scoring chances. This metric is much more predictive of goal scoring than stats such as ‘shots’. In contrast, Boston is far below league average at generating scoring chances right in front of the net, but remain a threat in the high slot. Toronto outperforms metrics such as Corsi for and scoring chances due to their admirable scoring talent, and high number of odd man rushes per game. Boston has slightly above average shot quality, meaning they likely score near their expected results according to Corsi and scoring chances.
Zdeno Chara – Charlie McAvoy
Torey Krug – Kevan Miller
Matt Grzelcyk – Adam McQuaid
Morgan Reilly – Ron Hainsey
Jake Gardiner – Nikita Zaitsev
Travis Dermott – Roman Polak
Boston has been an excellent defensive team this season, beating Toronto in every major defensive category. The Bruins are one of the best shot suppression teams in the NHL, forcing teams to shoot from unfavourable scoring positions. In contrast, the Leafs allow a high concentration of dangerous scoring chances from the slot, leading to a much worse defensive performance. Shots against location heat maps for each team can be seen below:
Toronto gives up a lot of high danger chances, leading to a higher expected goals against per game. It also means the team underperforms metrics such as corsi and scoring chances. Boston, in contrast, is excellent at shot suppression. This leads to outperforming metrics such as corsi and scoring chances, and results in a very low expected goals against per game.
Both the Leafs and Bruins boast top tier goaltenders with Frederik Andersen and Tuuka Rask. Using a goalie comparison tool created by Tyler Kelley (@DocKelley41), we are able to compare each goalie by key metrics:
For more on what each metric means, read here. The values on the x-axis of the graph are the percentile ranks that each of their stats fall on. Frederik Andersen is near the top of the charts with his Goals Saved Above Average. This is unsurprising considering the aforementioned shaky Leafs defense and the great play of Andersen so far this year. The stat highlights that if an average goalie were to be placed in the Leafs net in front of Andersen, they would be expected to concede a lot more goals. By this metric among others, it appears Andersen has a small edge over Tuuka Rask this season.
The team statistics would suggest the Boston Bruins are the favourites in this series. However, in head-to-head matchups in the Toronto Maple Leafs have been the better team with a 7-1-0 record in 8 games over the past 2 seasons. This series should be a war, and one of the most likely first round matchups to go to 7 games. With that being said, my final prediction is Leafs in 7 games.